Just me trying to provide a balanced view to facilitate a more...

Just me trying to provide a balanced view to facilitate a more robust discussion, not ramping nor down ramping Alcidion.

The Q2FY23 was a combination of hits and misses to me for the following reasons:

MISSES

1) I felt Alcidion was trying to divert attention from the disappointing numbers using using the $5.2M figure to explain the lower cash receipt. As the CFO has clarified in the webinar, only around $2.6M can be attributed to the delayed payments. The remaining $2.6M is correctly attributed to Q2FY23 and has no bearing on the lower than expected cash receipts in Q1FY23.

How it has been worded has had the unintended/intended consequence of making some shareholders think that Alcidion would have been cashflow positive in Q2FY23 if the whole $5.2M was entirely attributed to Q1FY23, as evidenced by some of the comments here.



2) Rightly or wrongly, I was personally expecting a better 4C for Q2FY23 going by previous comments made by the CEO. Because we had a modest negative operating cashflow 4C in Q1FY23 and a positive operating cashflow of $1.5M in Q2FY22, I was therefore not expecting an underlying -$1.8M operating cashflow in Q2FY23 (after accounting for the $2.6M in delayed payments). To be fair, I might also have misinterpreted some of the context underpinning the comments.



3) Having watching the webinar a second time, I also picked up that Kate has added a disclaimer to her usual guidance that the company remains on track to achieve a positive underlying EBITDA and cashflow in FY23. It now assumes 'continued momentum in the UK', bearing in mind that the political uncertainty in Alcidion's biggest market has had an adverse impact in CY22.

4) Alcidion has also stop reporting the recurring and non-recurring split in its entirely, only disclosing this split for new sales. Looks the same to most people but mean differently in practice.

For example, this spilt was previously disclosed as


Now we only get this from Q1FY23:



5) The lumpiness in Alcidion's cash receipts profile is inherently lumpy, as evidenced from the chart below. Q1 and Q2 will continue to underperform relative to the second half of the financial year. Nevertheless, the overall trend is still positive.




HITS

1) New sales and recognisable revenue continue to track upwards





2) Cash expense has stabilised and maybe (just maybe) the benefits of operating leverage would soon start to kick in. Management has indicated that the cost base has achieve stabilisation and is unlikely to fluctuate substantially moving forward.
As how another poster has described - the opening of the revenue-cost jaw.