absolute disaster @Alcidion

First 5840 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Jcw007

744 Posts.

126

16/01/24

15:21

Post #: 71905181
Share

Originally posted by alnby: ↑

IMHO...
Having been a shareholder for a couple of years and then selling to 'utilise' the tax loss I have continued to keep an eye on ALC since June.
My thoughts and observations;
ALC was a highly traded, much spruiked 'growth' stock. The volume of posts on this platform and the number of so called share tipsters and analysts calling it (at very least) "one to watch" are testament to that. The company CEO has talked up the prospects hard along the way as well. That is to a degree part of job. Especially when your strategy calls on a number of rounds of funding from the shareholders.
Being an absolute minnow in this field is a dangerous place to be. You have to become profitable in a hurry, but continue to grow (often through acquisitions). You also need to pay descent wages to get descent staff. This strategy is only ever going to work if you can continue to sign lucrative contracts while juggling all of those balls.
No doubt the market got way beyond reality. But the big failing has been the drying up of lucrative contracts.
You can say that the situation with the NHS is beyond managements control - however they are very well compensated to predict the problems in their key markets and adjust. There has also been a lack of contracts in their other markets.
The Silverlink acquisition looked rushed and far too expensive. It has failed to deliver so far. The last capital raise was an absolute unmitigated disaster.
With management talking about the NHS contracts perhaps starting to flow possibly in the 4th quarter investors have voted. The opportunity cost of hanging around on the register waiting and still believing management will deliver this time is far too great.
Where to from here IMHO? I know of no accurate way to value a company that isn't yet profitable with a management that has a history of over 'promising' and under delivering and not being able to read their markets.
However, I wouldn't be surprised if the market has now over-reacted in the other direction and oversold ALC. Nothing has really change with the companies products. Sure, there's more shares on issue and the cash burn isn't great. But, they've raised capital and float around cash flow positive. If the NHS contracts do free up a bit and ALC can sign a few maybe from this very low ebb there's some value.
If memory serves me right - Kate bought about $400k worth of shares on market at 14c a couple of years back. So she believes. Australian Supers' investment in ALC does nothing either way for my confidence. It's a minute amount of money for them and just one of many, many bets they'd have in the market.
There are plenty of lessons in looking back at the last few years for ALC and the share price.
Have I bought in again? No. Investments of this type were always very small for me and made as a bit of a side bet to the large more 'stable' investments. Due to other calls on my cash I'm just watching.
Just my ramblings and musings. Hopefully someone finds them of some use. Absolutely not investment advice.

Expand

absolute disaster @Alcidion

ALC Price at posting: 6.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

1 Great analysis

Reply

There are more pages in this discussion • 266 more messages in this thread...

First 5840 Last

Add ALC (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 6.4¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $85.91M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	62762	6.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.6¢	3288	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	62762	0.065
2	115000	0.064
5	303193	0.063
3	303225	0.062
5	701886	0.061

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.066	3288	1
0.068	54926	1
0.069	95559	2
0.070	162805	5
0.071	448860	4

Last trade - 09.59am 08/05/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last 6.6¢		Change 0.000 ( 1.54 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
6.5¢	6.6¢	6.5¢	3380
Last updated 10.01am 08/05/2024 ?

ALC (ASX) Chart

Day chart unavailable

absolute disaster @Alcidion

Featured News

Westpac tracks lower in profits in first half of 2024, with a 16% yoy drop amid slowing economy

Maiden drilling at West Arunta hints at major IOCG system for Rincon

Tamboran is listing on the NYSE, and Wall Street is paying attention

Mantle Minerals to kick off drilling at Mt Berghaus in WA

Sold out signs go up for RIU Resources Roundup in Sydney

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

absolute disaster @Alcidion

Featured News

Top Stories

Westpac tracks lower in profits in first half of 2024, with a 16% yoy drop amid slowing economy

Maiden drilling at West Arunta hints at major IOCG system for Rincon

Tamboran is listing on the NYSE, and Wall Street is paying attention

Mantle Minerals to kick off drilling at Mt Berghaus in WA

Sold out signs go up for RIU Resources Roundup in Sydney

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News