to say it short. If you get the chance to get rich as a retail...

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ravanelli77

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16/01/24

17:30

Post #: 71908176
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Originally posted by alnby: ↑

IMHO...
Having been a shareholder for a couple of years and then selling to 'utilise' the tax loss I have continued to keep an eye on ALC since June.
My thoughts and observations;
ALC was a highly traded, much spruiked 'growth' stock. The volume of posts on this platform and the number of so called share tipsters and analysts calling it (at very least) "one to watch" are testament to that. The company CEO has talked up the prospects hard along the way as well. That is to a degree part of job. Especially when your strategy calls on a number of rounds of funding from the shareholders.
Being an absolute minnow in this field is a dangerous place to be. You have to become profitable in a hurry, but continue to grow (often through acquisitions). You also need to pay descent wages to get descent staff. This strategy is only ever going to work if you can continue to sign lucrative contracts while juggling all of those balls.
No doubt the market got way beyond reality. But the big failing has been the drying up of lucrative contracts.
You can say that the situation with the NHS is beyond managements control - however they are very well compensated to predict the problems in their key markets and adjust. There has also been a lack of contracts in their other markets.
The Silverlink acquisition looked rushed and far too expensive. It has failed to deliver so far. The last capital raise was an absolute unmitigated disaster.
With management talking about the NHS contracts perhaps starting to flow possibly in the 4th quarter investors have voted. The opportunity cost of hanging around on the register waiting and still believing management will deliver this time is far too great.
Where to from here IMHO? I know of no accurate way to value a company that isn't yet profitable with a management that has a history of over 'promising' and under delivering and not being able to read their markets.
However, I wouldn't be surprised if the market has now over-reacted in the other direction and oversold ALC. Nothing has really change with the companies products. Sure, there's more shares on issue and the cash burn isn't great. But, they've raised capital and float around cash flow positive. If the NHS contracts do free up a bit and ALC can sign a few maybe from this very low ebb there's some value.
If memory serves me right - Kate bought about $400k worth of shares on market at 14c a couple of years back. So she believes. Australian Supers' investment in ALC does nothing either way for my confidence. It's a minute amount of money for them and just one of many, many bets they'd have in the market.
There are plenty of lessons in looking back at the last few years for ALC and the share price.
Have I bought in again? No. Investments of this type were always very small for me and made as a bit of a side bet to the large more 'stable' investments. Due to other calls on my cash I'm just watching.
Just my ramblings and musings. Hopefully someone finds them of some use. Absolutely not investment advice.

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to say it short. If you get the chance to get rich as a retail investor you should keep your money away! ;-)
imo market decided. It seems that we are irreversible on the way into insignificance. A growing pipeline is worth the paper IMO

ALC Price at posting: 6.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 5.6¢		Change 0.004(7.69%)		Mkt cap ! $75.17M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.3¢	5.6¢	5.2¢	$39.61K	732.5K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	147999	5.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.6¢	377322	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	147999	0.055
1	120956	0.054
1	102842	0.053
2	303984	0.052
1	42986	0.051

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.056	377322	3
0.057	152589	2
0.058	51700	1
0.059	76384	3
0.060	235947	5

Last trade - 16.10pm 02/05/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last 5.6¢		Change 0.004 ( 7.69 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
5.3¢	5.6¢	5.3¢	252532
Last updated 14.51pm 02/05/2024 ?

ALC (ASX) Chart

to say it short. If you get the chance to get rich as a retail...

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