Observers (seems like the most politically correct salutation I can use)
I have been in the health IT business for over 25 years. So I think that qualifies my observations more than most. And yes ... I have more than a passing knowledge of Alcidion and its products (don't ask - I won't tell).
But I have to say that recent price movements have nothing to do with the underlying product suite and functionality. It has everything to do with macro effects and influences. War in Ukraine ... Rising national inflation rates (and hence market interest rates)... etc .. all outside of the control of Alcidion, but having huge impacts on the trading population.
I would love an increasing share price. It is not to be at this point in time. But for reasons beyond Alcidions ability to control. I think we are all agreed that a substantial announcement by Alcidion would make an impact on the share price. But then we have all seen recent announcements have no material impact on the share price - when we all expected substantial uplifts. So that led me to consider why this might not be the case. (And
@composer - please feel to add your very well considered cogitations to this - your posts are very well respected!!)
First off (in my mind) ... macro environment factors. Alcidion is an amoeba in the global market ... other companies do not even sneeze at the difference Alcidion can make. My daughter is studying Yr 12 Business Studies, and is looking at Disney at the moment. Disney's DAILY revenue would be something that I hope Alcidion is aspiring to as an annual revenue over the next three years, not just in a single day!!! So I think we all have to appreciate that Alcidion is mere dust in the wind, and therefore subject to factors WELL outside of ALC's control. We go where the wind blows - and if we deviate from the wind, all power to all of us holders!!
Secondly ... Trading volumes. Please ... don't lets get overly excited by a 2.5% change in overall price, when the trading volumes represent less than 0.1% of share volumes outstanding. Without doing the exact maths, I think the Top 20 own over 70% of the company. So true value is not expressed by what you see through your preferred trading platform each day. That just reflects the day to day choices of day traders. As JimBills numbers show, aside from funds, Top 20 is not selling. If anything, they are accumulating. That, in itself, makes me more confident.
Thirdly (and lastly), I think we are currently in the period between when contract signatures are announced, and when contracts are delivered upon. None of the suite are available to be installed off a download. They all require configuration of the interface, interfaces, and business logic at the very least. This is expressed through the recognition of revenue calendar. We sign a contract today worth $20m over the next 5 years, but only $5 mill will be recognised this FY. That is not surprising. Look at the implementation of EPIC within the RMH/RMCH/RWH/PMCC precinct. That was announced in 2016. And yet, 6 years later, this is STILL being implemented. Medical systems take A LONG TIME to get installed and embedded. We are not talking about dealing with widgets here. When you and I are patients in a hospital, we DO NOT want to be considered a widget in a manufacturing conveyor belt. In my experience, Alcidion has a unique approach to implementation that focusses on how the clinician wants to see the patient. And it does not provide that as a cookie cutter approach. This leads to a better "stickiness" of solutions (because the users buy in to the solution), but longer than usual implementation time frames (because the users buy in to the solution). To me, it is the degree to which Alcidion can be strong enough with the purchasing population to ensure that SOMETHING gets live, flexible enough to ensure that that buying population can be happy with the initial implementation, and can SEE the future path. Clinicians (and my apologies to the clinical reading population here), need to focus on a series of steps to an end goal, and NOT JUST on what comes over the goal line for version #1. (Health bureaucracy is to blame here - where funding is locked in for version #1, but not for subsequent enhancements - thats an entirely different post!!).
And with that, I reconfirm my hope for the future ... and for the market to stop setting closing price based on 11 shares robo-traded after 4pm in the afternoon
C
(20min delay)
