General Discussion Thread, page-171

25c will probably need to see a 12 month forward looking average daily revenue of around $95k per day in revenue @40% or better GM. With $38k/d gross profit and (say) $16.5k/d for opex and another $4.5k/day for integrations (4 integrations a quarter @ $100k per integration)...that leaves an EBIT of about $17 k/day....or a bit over $6m for 12 months (all aud calcs). P/e of 25 is $150m and the (say) 600m SOI fully diluted by then means an SP of 25c and EN10 on the threshold of being "in the money". That level of p/e would not be unreasonable with an implied ROCE north of 30%. may even be higher.

The company has previously guided that the 4 quarters are split 12.5/12.5/25/50 in weighting and have recently updated that with a 25-35/65-75 split between H1 and H2. Both these guidances are braodly consistent with each other. Using the midpoint of the provided H1/H2 split, a 12 month average of $95k would require a H1 daily average of $57k and an H2 average of $133k. The J-curve is more extreme if you use the quarterly splits.

But seasonality is seasonality, no matter how dramatic it looks. Question is when will the company be confident to reissue 12 month guidance, and what evidence will the market require to believe it. My guess is once it can credibly demonstrate that revenue potential is no longer capital constrained.

All IMO and GLTA.