jobless claims worst then expected

dow down 1.84%

as mentioned yesterday jobless claims may have an impact on Dow..

	Previous	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
4-week Moving Average - Level	525.75 K			518.5 K
New Claims - Level	467 K	500 K	442 K to 700 K	524 K

Highlights

Jobless claims data appear to be settling into non-dramatic recessionary levels after the usual wide swings during the shortened holiday weeks. Both initial claims and continuing claims moved toward their 4-week averages, giving a cleaner perspective on what is a very weak, but not catastrophically weak, jobs market.

Initial claims rose 54,000 in the Jan. 10 week to 524,000 vs. 470,000 in the prior week (467,000 initially reported). The 4-week average fell 8,000 to 518,500, again very close to the latest week. Offsetting the rise in initial claims, continuing claims for the Jan. 3 week fell 115,000 to 4.497 million, nearly right at the 4-week average of 4.498 million.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 unexpectedly fell a steep 24,000 to 467,000. The decline may be due to the holiday shortened week but the Labor Department said there are no special factors. In contrast, continuing claims continued to swell, jumping 101,000 to 4.611 million for the worst level since 1982. The latest change in continuing claims is likely more reflective of current conditions in the labor market than initial claims. While those filing initial claims may or may not have been affected by the New Year's holiday than usual, it is clear that laid off workers are having a harder time getting back on a payroll.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 1/10/09: 500,000
Range: 442,000 to 700,000

Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility