Great post as usual, I always enjoy reading them.
My take-
This is complicated and there are 100% back door deals getting worked out here.
Multi product, multi facility, pre-existing offtakes, and a fast track with minimal capex to carbonate.
Brett, BBA, Hatch and these bankers know, particularly the Quebecers and the Chinese, that carbonate was 100% produced at NAL.
1 hr hour on the internet and their analysts would see what we have...
That is OUR carbonate, made in LaCorne you see in Split's photos....no doubt.
I mainly referred to it as samples, as they were in a ramp phase, and trying to control quality and production rates, as well as test logistics.
My understanding-
I did a deep dive on the previous iterations of our La Corne facility and Veolia HPD tech a while ago.
A very, very Quick wrap on the ownership of NAL.....you will recognise the name who wrote it, and an interesting title
RB ENERGY-CARBONATE PRODUCTION 2014-
Jun 5-6 2014
Battery grade 99.99% produced
And
6th August 2014 RB surged 25%
First shipment 55 tonnes
Produced technical grade carbonate packed and shipped to Tewoo.
Aiming for ramping to nameplate of 20,000, by Q1 2015 and to produce multi purity products-tech/industrial grade and battery grade, but they ran out of cash
CARBONATE PRODUCED AND SHIPPED FROM LACORNE
Then, RB out, Jilin Jien in.
Now its certainly possible that during those failed bankruptcy's equipment went missing.
Tanks, crystallizer, chemicals, as far as I can see are there.
AND LATER..... WHAT ABOUT VEOLIAS' CRYSTALLIZER, I HEAR YOU SAY?
That Veolia HPD crystallizer, was NOT the primary crystallizer.
It was to use its unique tech to improve lithium recoveries FROM WASTE STREAMS, and in the process also produce Sodium Sulphate,
as a value add byproduct.
So, improved lithium recoveries, sodium sulphate value add AND reduction in waste, particularly from the tailings stream.
With soft lithium pricing, they were trying to maximise their revenues, and reduce waste
.
So, the Canadians and Qubecas, SHOULD know this hydromet plant was operational, produced both battery grade and technical/industrial grade lithium, and had shipped it to their offtake partner Tewoo.
BBA and Hatch have been involved at this property for literally decades...THET MUST KNOW, as they designed the facility.
Brett, Keith and the rest of them KNOW this history, particularly those that have been emplyed there before....and if they don't, they should be sacked....probably a little harsh...
This HALF BUILT line, quite frankly does my head in....WTF are these guys up to, continually pushing that line?
I haven't been there to confirm, but probably will get there one day...as I am sure some of you will, particularly Split, and see for myself.
I MAY BE MISSING SOMETHING..... So, the caveat here, is something may have gone missing during the various changes of ownership.
Was the original crystallizer repossessed? They are very expensive pieces of equipment. If so, when?
Dougal has mentioned the crystallizer.
Or Is this just another upgrade we will see to push carbonate production to 30kt/pa, employing the same strategy we did in improving the concentration circuit?
The only info I could find was similar references/accounts to the Veolia HPD crystallizer that Split and I think SB found.
But as I have shown, it was not in the primary Lithium carbonate circuit, it is an additional Sodium Sulphate circuit using the tailings stream., essentially post Carbonate production and using the waste.
The photos and videos of NAL, do not show 50% of the hydromet plant missing...I couldn't see anything missing.
From the RB days, to the J.Jien days, to the Sayona days.....the photos look the same to me....and they ALL talk of
RESTARTING the plant. A plant that was complete, has previously produced 99.99% battery grade carbonate, and was well on its way to reaching its 20,000/pa nameplate capacity.
As Split mentioned, the strategy may be to buy (or have bought) Amoss, and relocate this Hydromet plant there.
However, It would create space at NAL, and allow for a second concentrator within the existing building.
If this is the case, I could understand the delay for the carbonate PFS.
JUST PUT OUT SOME VAGUE COMMS TO THAT EFFECT.
If SYA will employ this strategy to create space for a second concentrator at NAL, the hydromet will require not only upgrades, but there will be removal from NAL, upgrading and prep at Amoss and then reinstallation....a very labourious, time consuming and capital expensive process.
Pain in the short term....but if you are trying to build a 500kt SC6 capacity at NAL, with Authier,possibly Tansim, Jourdan's Vallee and the NAL superpit feeding it, it would be the best strategy going forward..
BUT....
Will it be producing BEFORE the Quebec mandate of June 2026?
And may fit the speed and tonnes to market rhetoric they are spruiking.
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As for our present state of affairs.
We are heavily oversold, CASHED UP, below bricks and mortar value, have created solid base at the CR price, with the macro bouncing hard and the S&P nearly punching through 4300 on Friday, and more encouraging is that the broader market participated in the +700 dow rally. The Lithium price is on a charge, hopefully shorts dropping away and softening their influence and some big announcements OVERDUE...
(Still drafting my email to Dougal and Brett...its worth shot anyway)
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The macro, broader markets, EV sales, the fundamnetals and the lithium price are ALL aligning.
Surely....surely.....there is only one way this thing can go???? And it aint down....but what do I know???
Hopefully we are enlightened with further info soon....
Good luck everyone.
(20min delay)