I wanted to return to our discussion on Hydroxide v Carbonate for NAL which I base on Market Demand.
So first I want to make it clear that I am not "anti-Carbonate" but rather "pro-Hydroxide-from-Spodumene". That ought not to be ambiguous. I strongly believe that spodumene producer has as cost advantage producing Hydroxide versus those than produce Carbonate from other sources and could further refine that to Hydroxide. And in other words, it would be stupid to produce Carbonate from Spodumene and then further refine that to Hydroxide.
Now there is no argument that there is as much a bifurcation of LIB chemistry (NCM v LFP) as there is with Lithium Sources (Brine/Clay-to-Carbonate Vs Spodumene-to-Hydroxide)
In other words room for both. Plenty of room for both. The question is where are the best margins (and what should not cloud this is Brownfield V Greenfield given the length of time of operation of these mines and plant).
The other KEY POINT I WANT TO MAKE ... about the viewpoint above for LFP is its global battery market share to 40% by 2030. I'm not interested in global battery market share for my North American stocks (so SYA, PLL, LAC etc). I'm not interested in selling a single thing to China (sure short term there is no way around shipping SC to China for refining). I'm looking for my investment to leverage the North American market - so I am more interested in Hydroxide market in North America (since SYA is a spodumene producer).
So I'll share this from a Rodney Hooper Valuation for Frontier Lithium (Ontario spodumene) in May 2021, which colors some of my thinking. It probably doesn't sit all that well with SYA posters given RKE is quite supportive of PLL - but hey it is what it is.
"Our forecasts show passenger EV battery demand growth in the USA at 30x between 2020 and2030. Translated, this equates to 600 GWh of battery cell demand and approximately 500KT LCEof battery-grade lithium demand (85%-90% hydroxide). In addition, energy storage andcommercial vehicles will add further battery demand."
"we believe domestic North American hydroxide supply will trade at a $1,000/t+premium to China."
and to show the split between Carbonate and Hydroxide
So this data may be considered stale ... and RH has put out an update .. and I did post on that fairly extensively on the PLL thread if you care to visit ... but it really doesn't change (my) investment thesis.
HOWEVER what I also want to communicate is that LFP DOES NOT MEAN NO HYDROXIDE. As I understand this battery's chemistry, and it has been around since the early days of LIBs (its not new), LFP uses both LiOH and Li2CO3 in the manufacture of LFP CAM.
If anyone is still reading, I would direct you to:
So the first thing to note is TPA is the largest component of the raw materials needed for an LFP and the absence of Nickel and Cobalt (which accounts for the cost savings). The amount of Lithium in and LFP is about the same as NMC, NCA chemistries.
Aleees is a lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) battery material manufacturer (in Taiwan) as well as an IP licensor in the world, and is also one of the few companies outside China with complete LFP battery material manufacturing technology and patents. This is their "flow sheet". You will note that both LiOH and Li2CO3 are raw materials input into the process.
I was surprised to see that there is 5X as much LiOH consumed than Li2CO3. For some reason I thought it was equal.... SURPRISING??? Yes/No?
I hope this has been useful and goes to explain why I dont think producing Carbonate from Spodumene is a smart move. It may well have been appropriate in 2012-2017 but IMO it is not the case now. What SYA/PLL got was valuable rocks, and GoQ - including IQ - needs to back off and let these 2 companies figure out what is best for them in this market and not what was the case a decade ago. If that means writing off the existing plant and salvaging pieces to get a greenfield Hydroxide plant going - so be it. It's a 30 yr operation.....
SYA Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)