so what i would do there is look at the next best technology in the market and see if that technology can not only be engineered quick enough, but also all the suppliers and manufacturers of the key components and materials can be put in place quick enough to not only substitute Lithium batteries, but also ensure the supply is able to catch the runaway demand of the electric vehicle revolution.
Take Sodium batteries for example. People get spooked by Sodium batteries. The technology is a long way off being able to match Lithium in performance. Then it's only competitive advantage is manufacturing cost.
Lets say Sodium batteries had managed to par the performance of Lithium batteries tomorrow.
How many years would it take to build all the factories and and components needed worldwide to supply all the demand now, and then bridge the gap to the demand in the 7-10 years when it is likely to see all of this come to fruition? We supposedly cant even do it with Lithium with all of the refinement over the last 5 years.
A good example of that is lead in fuel for the combustion engine.
They knew lead was dangerous, but it took decades to engineer a replacement, then also put in place all of the supply necessary to replace the lead while trying to keep pace with the demand that kept running away from the oil companies while introducing the replacement.
Are we really going to be worried about an alternative solution to Lithium in 2024? Just my opinion of course.
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