To many this is old news, but we have some more dots being lined up and pieces of the puzzle coming together.
In my opinion, NAL carbonate is a foregone conclusion. You can tie it up in as many studies as you like, but when the CEO of NAL, starts quoting the Quebec mandate and carbonate production, you better stand up and take notice.
This is not to say that hydroxide will never be produced at NAL. But having said that, I would say now that with the body of evidence we have, that carbonate is a definite.
I am a massive proponent of producing both, and future proofing the company from the 'CAM chemistry flavour of the month.'
As an interesting side-note, in the RB/Quebec lithium days, circa 2012-2014, hydroxide, as well as sodium sulphate, was also planned to also be produced at NAL. They ran out of cash, but I wonder how much of this circuit, if any, was designed, procured or installed.
But at this stage, with carbonate prices elevated, it makes no sense to convert carbonate to hydroxide, to make less money, as well as the cost and losses in conversion. And I would further add, that completely scraping the old carbonate plant, to facilitate the build of hydroxide plant, doesn't make much sense either.
So, that's NAL's foreseeable refining future sewn up.
What if we had an alternate plan for hydroxide?
What about Moblan? How will vertical integration be achieved for this emerging Tier 1 resource?
There has only been rhetoric and a verbal narrative, that we will ultimately produce 100,000T of hydroxide. Why would Brett continue to spruik this if there was no immediate plans in place t reach this goal?
Why would you continue to push this narrative, when none of the official ASX announcements, reflect this path forward.
It always bothered me that from as far back as the 2022 AGM, Brett was stating this, then the Moblan PFS announcements was released, with no mention of hydroxide, or any form of downstream processing. No REFINERY? Really?
This Moblan announcement was dated 5th October 2022, with No official refining plans stated.
Then November 2022...AGM....100, 000T hydroxide, now being spruiked by Brett.
Which to me means, there was already a plan hatched for the refining...separate to Moblan.
Early 2023, mid Feb, news broke of Resolute's closed paper Mill in Amoss.
What is currently on the table is the Sayona group which would like to buy the property. We know that the rest of them, their bread and butter, is not the forest industry, neither near nor far. It's the minerals, it's the electric battery industry , he first said.Daniel Cloutier says he got this information directly from Resolute during a meeting with CEO Rémi Lalonde last January. He expects a decision in the spring.
So we know that at a minimum, in January 2023, Sayona was speaking to Resolute. And I would go so far to say that the initial enquiries and conversation, was started way before that, and were on the radar for Sayona, before the Moblan PFS announcement in October 2022.
So this paper mill, was almost always the plan to refine for the northern hub.
If that is the case, we should be close to a resolution and the final commitment to purchase the paper mill at Amoss. The initial timeline stated by Cloutier was the Northern Spring 2023, which finished a month and a half ago.
Whether they are stitching up a JV partner, be it industry led -chemical/EV manufacturer led or even with provincial/Federal governments, or waiting for the 30%tax credit scheme to begin, I think that this is inevitable. C$15-20m or more....it can be secured....there is a precedent here when Nemaska headed down the same path with Resolutes old Laurentide mill at Shawinigan, before they went bankrupt.
So, then does this tie in with the CR? $200M CR...many ask why??? Why now...maybe this is a piece of the puzzle. So maybe Amoss had something to do with it...
We had around AU$110M COH. Over 50M was from the FTS issue, which has been reserved for exploration and mine development.. ( Even though my understanding is it can be used, as long as the initial investment is acquited within 24 months) Leaves us around 60M to operate....no worries... But, What if you required a quick outlay of $20M or 30M for Amoss.... Leaves you 30m-40M until you start generating revenue, and maybe that was cutting it a little too fine, particularly if you want to get the ball rolling with engineering studies of the Amoss plant, and what is required for the conversion.
What if the lithium price started heading south again....
By the end of this month the quarterly is due, and we may be able to see if any funds were allocated in this direction, even though there should be an official announcement to disclose it...
And Now, we are starting to see some activity around Amoss.
Guy Belleau, presenting to the Amoss Chamber of commerce last month.
We are also trying to establish a greater presence in the Amoss township, and hire a consultant/advisor/PR representative, just as we did when we got serious up North about Moblan, and set up an office in Mistissini.
This Amoss role, could be to recruit for NAL, but it could also begin to try and capture some of the personnel, who used to be employed by Resolute at the paper-mill.
As well as this, we seem to be already planning forward, and setting up a Construction and engineering manager for Moblan. As the info starts filtering through for our mine plan and requirements at Moblan, via the (PFS)DFS studies some of which would already be known, this new position can strategically start the forward planning for this massive project...in quite a remote location.
The messaging from Brett has been clear.
Moblan- 1,000,000 tonnes concentrate to feed a 100,000 tonne hydroxide plant
The Moblan DFS may only cover 1 modular concentration plant/1 train to deliver 300-350,000 tonnes sc6.
A second and then a third, may be built out at a later time. As long as you make the space in your plant, concrete in the base pads, set up the utilities wiring, water etc..you can quickly build out another modular plant. And the same plant using the same spod, could probably be commissioned in half the time....Modular in design, late model plants are being designed with scope for growth, that can duplicate the original plant to a second and a third, to eventually get to the desired output.
Moblan the Monster resource and Amoss the super refinery...
And now we are seeing the planning of this in its infancy, with offices in Amoss and Mistissinni, ongoing discussions with Resolute /Excellence, and key positions being recruited, to execute the future of these projects.
Now Imagine running these projects concurrently. With the right partner, maybe an LG and government involvement with bags of cash, Amoss could be fitted out in 2 years...so if started next year, could be ready by late 2026, early 2027. Throw in an engineering study, which will no doubt be completed first, and this project could be ready in mid to late 2027
And when was Moblan forecast to be ready .....2027.,,,
So, in an ideal world with plenty of funding, these 2 projects could come to fruition around the same time...even though we are estimating we will refine in 2030...
But you never know. The ambition is there, the aggression is there, Soquem and the Quebec government are there....and with the right partner, maybe the impossible, is possible.
Good luck everyone...
SYA Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)