Another essay for my friends...
I haven't seen this much downramping activity on the thread for a while.
Usually a GREAT sign....
Last time I saw such a concerted effort with so much energy, it proceeded a sharp rise.
This much time and energy expended...really??? Thanks for caring fellas...
Ignore the self prophetic saviours people, as I think most holders have.
Do your own research and DD and make your own decision to buy or sell...its up to you...
Don't even respond to them....they thrive on your engagement as a further platform to spread FUD.
There is an excellent paper written by Tom Swiers of the SEC, about this exact scenario.
Tom Swiers, Branch Chief, Office of International Affairs, SEC.
it very accurately depicts what we see here on a daily basis, both in manipulated trading patterns and misinformation spread with social media campaigns.
https://www.sec.gov/file/market-manipulation-and-case-studies (password protected...it never used to be, that's how I got a copy)
File-
b sec Market Manipulations and Case Studies.pdfI am not sure this paper will upload correctly, hopefully the link will work.
Some slides from the paper if the file does not open up-
The trading patterns and misinformation campaigns that you have witnessed of Sayona, is accurately described.
Our fundamentals remain very positive.
However, without timely and accurate comms, we have been punished by the market.
It doesn't want to see uncertainty...and that is exactly what SYA has been giving them for years now. I guess the market is sick of non binding verbal comms and timelines, much like we are...
In terms of macro, we have been seeing a rise in the S&P without the smaller and mid cap markets participating.
The NASDAQ has been on a tear playing catch up to the S&P and we have now seen the Russell 2000 make strong gains since June.
This is the index that would represent money flows into small and mid cap stocks like ours, and it rose nearly 1.5%. on Friday...
It is still sub 2000, but if it breaks this barrier, we could see big inflows into this index.
The driver for this is the cooling of inflation data. Interest rates and bond yields forecast to be on the decline, so a transition away from them and a pivot of capital back into the markets. Borrowing money becomes cheaper and the appetite for risk increases in the broader markets.
The bulls are taking control here.
While we are on the macro, and just for reference for our downramping fiends, the VIX is at near 12 months lows. One of you asked what that means?...it means the bulls are in control .
The bears are trying to hang on but are fighting a losing battle.
And this battle is the last decisive battle, in the war for a push into a deep and protracted recessionThe lithium price itself has seen some recent decline in the last few weeks, but seems to be levelling out and has probably hit a local floor of around US$3400-3500 for SC6. Lots of volatility.....Downside from here would be minimal.
As the supply chain catches up, driven by these record EV sales/increased penetration as well as a shift to ESS worldwide, we should see a corresponding rise in commodity pricing.
Fundamentally, we have been told our 30,000T of sc5.5 is basically loaded and ready to ship.
We have been trying to nail down which ship it is on, or even figure out which port its at.
Once again mixed comms and uncertainty, which the market punishes.
Surely this week we will have to find out where this ship is headed...China...Korea?
As for the 50% unaccounted, playing devils advocate, maybe this is a full PLL shipment for LG/Tesla??? At least they will know where to send it!
If that is the case, then we may alternate shipments PLL...SYAQ...PLL...SYAQ...
It might even be an advantage if the first shipment is for the PLL offtake with a current soft price of $3500.
By the time the next shipment comes around, it could quite possibly have shored up closer to $4000...I guess time will tell.
Just another theory...
Except they told us shipments would be shared...and the offtake is with the board for cosideration.....but now it will be auctioned....and the ship will leave in July......from Tres Rivieres....no, its Port of Quebec....hold on.....where is it again....where is it going???
Frustrating is not the word,,,,
For long term shareholders who just want to see the start of revenue generation, I guess it doesn't really matter.
It is the culmination of years of hard work, to finally transition from explorer to producer to seller.....and dollars flowing in the door, rather than constant outflows.
And with that, the now continual build of these capital inflows with shipment after shipment, sale after sale....heading toward 9 digit profit figures.
But Mr.Market doesn't see it that way...they want to see facts, ledgers, costs, profit.....and thats is what they are waiting for....
So for us who still see a future here, we wait, continue our DD and hold in anticipation of these sales.
I have always said the back half of 2023 will be great for Sayona.
The macro improving with cooling inflation, pivot of capital inflows into the small-mid cap sector, EV sales continuing to grow,
lithium prices on the rebound with the structural deficit and super cycle still on the cards, a ramp up that sounds as if it has gone to plan,4 shipments of 30,000t in the next 5 months, one of which should happen this week and further offtake announcements should come to light soon.
A few of these milestones may happen this week..... and what do we see?
A big push of the SP south, downrampers overrunning the threads...post after post...a genuine concerted effort to drive investors into selling. They must be getting payed overtime punching out this many posts after hours ans on the weekend, although I have been told they get payed per post.
A perfect opportunity while lithium pricing is weak and one of our peers has delivered a difficult quarterly.
Fact is the CR and the ambiguous comms or lack thereof, have had just as much to do with it as anything.
The slide to 18 was a inevitable, and usually the momentum carries it further.
But this time, the timing of this massive downramping effort which has been incessant, with the timing of our first shipments and details of our first sale coming up this week, is very telling.
And so is the agenda to get as many people to sell as possible, so their overlords can buy as cheaply as possible, before all these catalysts come together and rerate the stock permanently.
But this is a familiar story, one we have all seen before....
Because this too, was the story of PLS.....
Ultimately, its up to you.
Stay or go, as always, I wish you the best of luck everyone...
(20min delay)