SYA 3.23% 3.0¢ sayona mining limited

General Discussion Topics, page-111313

  1. 4,418 Posts.
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    With respect to Moblan IMO you can't just take the $109 Million offer at Patriot as a data point, you would also have to include the LTR data point well. If we dissect the offer to LTR we find a $2.50 per share price which amounted to an offer of $5.5 Billion. 5% of that would be $275 Million. From a grade perspective the 2 are nearly identical and from a resource perspective LTR is 156mt and Patriot at 109mt, so I would apply a further 30% discount to the $275 to come up with around $192 Million.

    So why did ALB determine LTR's 5% to be worth $192 Million and Patriot's 5% to be worth $109 Million? Both have large resources and both will be difficult to mine.

    There are a couple of reasons I can think of. The first is that LTR has done way more in terms of proving their claims, they have a DFS in place that proves out their value whereas Patriot is still a very long way from that. LTR also has some OTA agreements in place that de-risk it a bit further.

    So each site is going to be valued based on where they are with respect to their individual project.

    I see Moblan (after DFS) having a much higher value than Patriot, because we have the benefit of infrastructure. Moblan has rail, hydro power, and roads all completed. In addition to that Moblan's ore body is low strip ratio, and shallow compared to LTR (99% underground mining) and Patriot will certainly be challenged with water issues with the location of their deposit.

    Moblan does not have an OTA. Here is a summary of the 3 as I see it and we can each decide where Moblan is likely to measure up.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5484/5484815-0940489c70de159c9c8458f4898bd337.jpg

    It is difficult to say exactly where our resource will eventually land, but I think the 109mt that is currently held by patriot will be in 3rd place once the drilling is complete at Moblan. Just a reminder to all, the 70mt shown in the chart above was derived from the 2022 drill program and has none of the 2023 drill results in it. So 70mt represents about 1/3 of the total that will eventually be covered in the DFS.

    Has ALB or RIO spoken with SOQUEM about their 40% and made an offer? Would SOQUEM be obligated to disclose this, especially if they have declined? I would think if SOQUEM have invested in the drill programs that they would want to see through to DFS prior to negotiating anything, to do so now would be leaving $$ on the table.

    Just my point of view and to help add to the conversation.
 
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