Must be conservative . Because we know that the Mining Contractors cost for the FIRST 4 years is C$50 million .
So using nameplate that is C$221.24 ( A$254.30) per tonne concentrate and for average LOM output its C$263.10 (A$302.42 ) per tonne concentrate.
If you then add the per annum sustaining capital costs of C$18,750,000 , you would then add C$82.96 ( A$95.36) for nameplated production and C$98.66 (A$113.40 ) for average LOM production.
You then have the ' Milling ' cost of C$196.68 per tonnes concentrate or A$226.07 per tonne.
So in either case , we have accounted for either an approximate A$575.73 per tonne concentrate at nameplate ....or A$641.89 per tonne concentrate at LOM average tonnage output.
So with ASIC at C$987 ( A$1,134.48) per tonne concentrate ....and cash costs per tonne at C$817 ( A$939.08 ) per tonne concentrate , that leaves a fair chunk unaccounted for in this schedule and perhaps represented by admin and overheads which on the surface look to be DOUBLE at nameplate and 57% of ASIC and 68.4% of cash costs if using average LOM output for the first 4 years.
Looking at it from another way , at nameplate production the current ASIC is suggesting that the cost of production including sustaining capital is A$575.73 .....so the difference of A$558.75 per tonne concentrate means we are spending A$126,277,500 on something else . And it definitely CAN'T be Admin and Salaries functions at A$2,428,413 per week.
And that's because you still have to take into account the effect on the DFS of the the Authier ore at C$105 ( A$118 ).....which is now A$120 per tonne ORE based on the current AUD to CAD exchange rate.
So that figure based on the ORE of 1.4 million tonnes ore feed per year at 33% blend from Authier at $120 per tonne ROCK .....DIVIDED by the nameplate concentrate of 226,000 tonne would be equivalent to A$245.30 per tonne concentrate if it were being supplied ....or at LOM average of 190,039 tonnes of concentrate , a figure of A$291.73 per tonne concentrate for the 33% Authier contributed ore.
So then after adding Authier ore into the mix , the concentrate cost per tonne reconciles to A$867.46 per tonne with the difference then being for Admin and Overheads being represented by A$267.02 per tonne or A$60,346,520 per annum at nameplate. Divide that by 52 weeks and you're looking at A$1,160,510 per week or around $5 million per month in ' No Production ' Corporate , Admin , and Staffing costs.
So this $60 odd million compares to the 9 month annualized amounts from the June Quarterly statements of $ 43.5 million.....so a difference of around A$16.5 million or approximately A$73 per tonne of concentrate at nameplate 226,000 tonnes.
So on the surface of everything , there does seem to be a ' buffer ' of at least the Authier component at the concentrate level of A$267.02 PLUS the A$73 per tonne of Admin & Corporate + staffing padding which you could take off the DFS ASIC amount of A$1,134.48 to arrive at a more realistic cost per tonne of A$794.46 per tonne. And this is WITHOUT Authier. 25% of this would then be charged off to Piedmont for NON off-take sales made by Sayona Quebec.....so the cost per tonne for those sales effectively becomes 75% of A$794.46 or A$595.85 per tonne of concentrate sales made outside of the off-take
keep in mind though that the DFS presented tonnages on the basis of basically mining 10% more rock but producing 60% more waste with only a 3.6% improvement in recoveries of an 8% higher grade.
So effectively if you were at the same time able to improve the strip by around 25% with the SAME amount of rock tonnage throughput ....., as well as improve the recoveries to between 10 & 15% , then you're going to be looking at educing your FIXED cost per tonne concentrate for at least those first 4 years by at the minimum 20 to 25% if not more if those sorts of improvements are realised .
So that could mean that we would be looking at more a figure of A$447 per tonne of concentrate and which is what you're more or less talking about with the comparisons to LTR and the improvement Sayona has undertaken as against the previous NAL operation.
It really just depends on a.) how quickly we can get the nameplate annualized tonnage ramped up , b.) how much further we can push the concentrate tonnages up from nameplate to figures of around 250,000 - 275,000 tpa .......and c.) how we can achieve this through improvements to mining strips and recoveries AND at the same time maintaining the QUALITY of the grade ...WITHOUT Authier.
And don't forget Jourdan's CEO was talking up figures as high as 400,000 tpa concentrate which if possible would also significantly ' Squeeze ' the fixed costs per tonne of the fixed costs of the operation .....so who knows , but I find it interesting that the Rock podcast didn't ask Guy this sort of question ...like what is the actual upper limit specs of the current NAL concentrator.
You also had the ' Owner Operator ' transformation of the fleet costs commencing in the 2027 year which has to be in the current DFS figures somewhere as well. So if this doesn't happen , what is the potential cost benefits and savings per tonne of concentrate produced if any as against staying with the status quo with an outsourced mining contractor.
Have we actually seen any specifics in regards the actual comparisons of this and/or has it been spelled out to us as ' Savings '
So there is lots we don't know from this current DFS document. However I don't think its a case of throwing out the baby with the bath water before we can study the numbers coming in in comparison.
What I find extraordinary from an investor point of view as well as a ' Regulators' point of view with regards to the almost purposeful ' silence ' is that currently as we have seen with the recent sell off , there would be a lot of investors who are either sitting on the fence running the rule over Sayona as well as those who may be contemplating selling but would FIRST like to see what sort of sales dollars Sayona has received for their product . And so I feel it is not enough to ask them to simply wait to find out in the quarterlies if they ( the BOD ) already know one way or the other that it will definitely have an impact one way or another on the valuation and share price.
So they know it will have an effect if its positive as do they if its negative . So if this information is available NOW , then they almost have an obligation to disclose it to the market to allow those investors to make these critical decisions ...., and NOT have to wait anther potential 8 weeks while the share price potentially flounders further.
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