General Discussion Topics, page-120276

From the AFR this morning regarding Liontown:



Now, it's interesting because a lot of the expected increase in supply will be coming from Kathleen Valley of course, now they are still 9 months away from starting production, and they will have to go through ramp up just like everyone else. Theirs is underground and considerably more complex and potentially expensive than open pit. (To be clear I do own Liontown too and think it's a great company also - I am not downramping it in any way).

Meanwhile by then demand from EVs will continue to increase, and Sayona will have been producing for nearly 2 years by the time they are steadily into ramp up and reaching any form of nameplate.

I really do feel we are being horrendously undervalued right now. There has been absolutely no indication that NAL's ramp up as been anything but excellent. The cash cost per tonne is considerably lower than any sale price, as is even the AISC, we have over $200m in cash, so what really is going on here?

Lithium sector sentiment is obviously incredibly low currently, but we are being smashed, all due to board optics and recent corporate events, not because of our actual operation or fundamentals and that is immensely frustrating from a long term investor point of view.

Our numbers are sound, the assets are real and valuable, yet here we are thanks to emotion and sentiment and a reduced lithium price that still gives us great margins.

If others near term producers and developers face issues of cost increases and delays, ramp up issues and generally lack of profitability due to reduced margins from higher opex costs and lower lithium prices then supply WILL NOT KEEP UP WITH IMPENDING DEMAND. Especially as all the dozens of non China refineries, CAM plants and gigafactories come online over the next 2 years.....

We have the resource (which is growing), we have the plant and personnel and experience, we have the cash and incoming free cash flow that most other hopefuls could only dream of and will not have for years, especially those with costly debt (in a higher interest rate environment) of which Sayona has none. We have all these things and that will put us so far ahead, especially as we are the only producer in North America.

We will be a downstream refiner before many will even start digging.


I think Mr Market really is very wrong about this one and I'll keep saying it.

It hurts being at this price, it's just not right....