No, your calculation is not correct. Based on our last quarterly...

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Timtam15

1,297 Posts.

1362

01/12/23

16:41

Post #: 71224197
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Originally posted by Langleybc: ↑

The news from that AGM was devastating.
I admire the Elias guy, as he held their feet to the fire. Well done to him.

The non compliance is appalling.

Dougal as the "Clayton's" investor relations person is appalling.

The clear message that the NAL carbonate mine will NOT be opening in 2026 is appalling. (they only have to show that the are making real progress)

The PLL deal that we are clearly stuck with until 2027 at the earliest is appalling.

estimated production for 12 months is 180,000 tonnes at best.

113,000 of that goes to PLL for $900 per tonne. Revenue equals $101,700,000. Cost to produce if $1000 per tonne( which is 20% below their current cost) is $113,000,000. So loss on PLL offtake is $11,300,000.

SYA gets 67,000 tonnes and sells at an average of $1800 per tonne. Revenue equals $120,600,000. Cost to produce if $1,000 per tonne(which is 20% below their current cost) is $$67,000,000.

So our position is $53,600,000 profit minus $11,300,000 loss on PLL product means that SYA makes a
miserable profit of $42,300,000 over a 12 month period.

This is best case scenario as we will fall below 180,000 tonne and we will not average $1,000 per tonne cost.

Realistically we will make $25,000,000 profit over a 12 month period.

The current $211,000,000 cash will be down to $150,000,000.

Thus no Moblan mine or NAL carbonate mine without a massive capital raising and a share price that will take years to recover.

All that we can hope for is a share price that is driven by pure sentiment because if we have to rely upon fundamentals we are doomed for years to come.

I am sad to say, that no matter what their motives are, the likes of BoT and paper plane are right for the moment.

Insitutions listening to that AGM yesterday would have run a million miles away from this company.

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No, your calculation is not correct. Based on our last quarterly report the Operating cost is A$1231 (FOB), which are based on an average of 9229 dmt per month since restarting in March this year.
This represent a 50% ramp up capacity of 18,833 per month. Once we ramp up, the cost will go definitely lower or at least below the A$1000 operating cost

According to PLL Quarterly below, they sold 29,011 dmt at a total revenue of $47m and a costs of sales @$23.363m, which equates to U$805 (A$1219)

So as you can see, we are definitely not making a lost as some have suggested, considering once you average out our realized selling price on A$1,985 dmt, we are making money. (BTW our current COH is $233m)

SYA Price at posting: 6.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
35 Upvote

6 Great analysis

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