General Discussion Topics, page-132549

What a shambles?

Yesterday we were looking good. On a technical and trading pattern perspective, we were looking good for a play into another 7s. And then an event happens, an announcement, and that takes over the play.
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I know what the announcement is, but can't make out the why of it - a bit of speculation on the cause. I don't think we will know, as either party won't make a statement on that, as it would be very speculative and opening up something which may not be completely public. So its left for us to make inferences, and based on our risk/reward, decide to be in or out.
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It was clear in the open that the shorters are ready and its going to be a brutal day (Plus those who wanted to exit). Very high volume and they made sure we close on the low of the day. Over 544m shares traded, drop of around 28%. That was the play. Plain and simple.
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This reminds me of another similar play we had on 28th August. Brett resignation. That day we did 586m shares trading. We dropped around 28%. Are there similarities? Only 2 days that we have done over 500m shares trading and dropping around 28% on both days.

Personally, I was caught unawares. Usually, in all my previous plays when we were coming down, I used to exit when it used to come around my buy and looking like going lower. Yesterday I had written my buy for this phase was at 5.9. Now I feel so lucky that the previous phase of my buy from 4.6 I had exited at 6.9 just couple of days back, when it failed to get over 7.5. So I was in 2 minds, to sell at open with a good loss or play it out. I thought I will see the beginning. But very shortly it was pushed down more. I now felt that the risk/reward is not very good at selling around 5 level. Like last time, I thought I will play it out. But I had to double down now. I don't like this play, but, i felt I was caught. I bought one lot at 4.8. Then trading pattern indicated we will finish on the low. So I bought the rest on closing auction. My average now for this phase is 5.3. I am not comfortable at this stage, but lets see, last time it turned out well, so hoping also for this stage.
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So what may happen tomorrow? Frankly don't know. Shorters are in control and may not leave easily. Unless some big buyers step in, or a positive news, or a very strong Li macro situation, we could continue our volatile and turbulent period. Last time on Aug 28th when we dropped 28% on 586 shares, next day we had a gain of around 26% on another high volume of 341m shares traded. The following day again we had an increase. So in couple of days we were up by around 45%. Although probability and sentiment as of today is not great, but sometimes patterns can repeat. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.