FYI

Tightening supply and government support sparks lithium market optimism

By Colin Hay - February 23, 2024

A number of recent international developments are providing positive impetus to the lithium market after a difficult start to the year.

Earlier this week, lithium companies on the ASX saw their share prices jump on rumours that giant Chinese battery maker CATL had closed a major lithium mine.

With a number of significant mines both locally and around the world also proposing to dramatically curtail their production, the threat of oversupply in the lithium market is starting to dissipate.

The unconfirmed report of the closure of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine due to high production costs and falling lithium prices is estimated to result in 3% of global lithium supply being taken out of the market.

There are also unconfirmed reports of a number of Chinese lithium mining and processing projects being affected by recent government tightening of environmental restrictions on operations.

Buyer interest returning

Pilbara Minerals, operator of the Pilgangoora project – one of the largest hard-rock lithium deposits in the world – has told Bloomberg that it is noticing a change in sentiment from lithium buyers.

The company said some buyers were seeking to increase their supply and a number of potential new buyers have begun to emerge.

This is no surprise, with the long-term picture still supporting the case for a large, looming gap in supply and demand estimates and a related leap in lithium prices.

Government support

Governments in the US, Canada and Australia continue to pump massive amounts of cash into the lithium and electric vehicle (EV) sectors to support their carbon dioxide reduction aims.

Recent reports from the White House have declared that meeting the US president’s goal of net zero emissions by 2050 will require large-scale adoption of EVs.

Despite reports that EV sales are sliding, the White House declared the US consumer market for EVs is rapidly growing.

In the third quarter of 2023, EV and hybrid sales amounted to 18% of US light duty vehicle sales.

Over the year, Americans bought one million fully electric vehicles, a new record.

President Biden is supporting this growing demand by setting ambitious goals for accelerating the EV transition through his Investing in America agenda.

Through the Inflation Reduction Act, he has worked with Congress to lower the price of new and used EVs by thousands of dollars and to incentivise American EV and battery manufacturing, attracting more than $230 billion of investment into the sector since taking office.

The US government has also recently announced plans for major investments in its EV charging network with expectations that EV usage is about to grow dramatically.

Locally, the Australian government continues to provide strong support for the local critical minerals industry and its importance to the economy and the nation’s own environmental aspirations.

Similar actions are being undertaken in Canada where the government is looking at the opportunity to supply battery metals to its giant neighbour as well as filling its own needs.