General Discussion Topics, page-133884

Getting ready for next leg?

Yes SYA remained flat to finish on 4c. Our volume was extraordinary, over 600m shares traded, most like rebalancing of indices happening.

Yesterday again the indices were switching between green and red, SP 500 finally closing slightly down around 0.2%, just the opposite of previous day - so slight indecision, maybe waiting for PCE data coming soon to see how inflation is going . But the US Li stocks were not that indecisive, most finished in green. Yesterday I had written it would be good to see ALB finish in the 130s, and it obliged, a close at 132. So both spot price and many Li stocks including ALB going in the right direction for now. But it so happens, that the rise across stocks is like a horse race. Some will do very well in the first half of the race, others come back stronger in the second half. In the end the margin become much closer than beginning, though there will always be winners and losers. So those who play multiple stocks, can play around that way, but if it looks like boom time, buy and hold should work very well too.

ASX Li was opened very timidly. ASX Indices were down, and it seemed like most ASX Li stocks had forgotten how it looks to have few good days in a row. Punters have been bashed over a long period, so many think of taking some of the table as soon as a decent rise happens, and sometimes that adds to price pressure. But if the sentiment is changing, slowly but surely it will reflect in stock prices. So as day went, many recovered from their initial drop, some still doing well in green, many others flat and some red. So on average it turned out to be day of consolidation. Indices too finished well in green. Another reason could be that there has been a number of decent days, everyone is expecting to be smacked down, so hesitant. But when the wave comes, it can sometimes sweep away a big one.
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Like many other ASX Li stock, SYA too opened meekly. There was no strong buy or sell early one, looked like a day of consolidation. Many other ASX Li stocks too went thru the same phase. But soon the sentiment changed, and many Li stocks started coming out of their bottom of the day. SYA too reached 4.2 and it was looking like a tug of war - shorters desperately trying to keep the lid on. Trading on the last 2 days has now shown, that for shorters, it is now not about how much they can push it down, they are just making a massive effort to see that a rise does not happen. But for how long? If the sentiment and spot price are on the positive side, one day it may have to give way. To me it looked like it could have been tomorrow, but this rebalancing act has put uncertainity - lets see how it plays out. But now, it looks like its not about whether it will go up, question is when? Hopefully soon based on my feel, but stock is still volatile, so please dyor.

Personally picked up a few today at 4. I had written earlier that I may wait for 3.7 or 4.3, but trading last couple of days gives some indication of bottoming. I feel downside could be 10%, but upside if things work out, easy 50% - so risk/reward looks good. But that's me, please check your own risk/reward. My average before today was 5.1 for this phase, now its 4.9.

So what may happen tomorrow? US Futures flat for now.. Bitcoin has been let lose, over 63k now. Couple of years back when it was around 17k, many, and I mean analysts were saying it may be going to 8k. Instead its looking at its all time high. Its never easy to predict, even for the best, so best to follow price action. We need spot price to continue going north. We need Li stocks to continue going north. ALB is nearly gained 15% in last 6 trading days. Some will think it may take a pause. But when it was coming down, there were big times with no pause. ALB needs to get to 150 to really make Li punters feel that the next big one is coming. Tonight, if it goes down, hopefully stays above 127. But, if it marches ahead, a close towards 140 would be very positive for ASX Li tomorrow. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.