General Discussion Topics, page-140373

@Norbeto
I (or SYA) can tell you what's not there or needs updating ...





That's taken right off the PTS of last June. Wait until the DTS goes "under the covers" to find out the full extent of what needs to updated, upgraded and/or replaced.

And don't forget that the PTS used an ASP US$25,585 per tonne of Carbonate and an AISC of US$11,997 per tonne to reach its pre-tax NPV8 AUD$3.7B (or ~US$2.47B). And yes the cost of raw material (i.e. SC) is "inflated" at US$1,180/tonne as the agreed transfer price.

Best to keep that in mind when thinking about where US Gigafactories could source their Carbonate needs from...

Recent interview with Fastmarkets has their 10-year average price forecast at $23.3/Kg Carbonate and about $1,900/t for SC6 .... that's an average over the next 10 years .... but for the remainder of this year that have SC at roughly $1,200/t

And I'll quote David Decklebaum from TD Cowan (my bolding)
"And if you believe that we're in this mid-cycle, albeit weak price environment, you're not incentivizing new expansion in North America. You have to have confidence, I think, that you're going to see continued government support. You wouldn't rightfully underwrite any of the projects that we know about in North America right now in this price environment, if you were paying for them yourself. I think you need to see that entire collaboration that goes all the way up to the OEM, beyond the loan programs office,"

That's pretty clear isn't it? "paying for them yourself" ... that's you the equity shareholder of the company. Oh sure there's lots of talk (in Canada esp) about non-dilutive sources of capital ... but I guess show me the money applies. And no one should be under any illusion that US DoE loan is available to SYQ ... it is not. Stellantis held Ontario's feet to the fire to match (or better) what was given to VW, else they would go elsewhere. Arcadium is a US company, with Quebec assets in its portfolio. If it's cheaper to "import" carbonate from its assets in Argentina and further refine that into Hydroxide in NC), than it is to refine SC into hydroxide in Quebec, what would be in the best interests of Arcadium shareholders. Now the trickier question ... if its more beneficial to Arcadium to send SC from Quebec to a refine that Arcadium decides to build in the USA (with say DoE loan) and most importantly gets IRA 45X tax credits what should it do? This is a problem for Quebec ... especially for those that say here Quebec wont allow export. Quebec needs to get off their asses and make the necessary changes to incentivize investment in the supply chain.

Lets not forget also that certain aspects of the IRA also DO NOT APPLY to SYA ... and that would be 45X ... which highly incentivizes the building of ... oh lets just say a lithium hydroxide facility ... in the USA (not Canada) by US company that pays taxes to IRS (not Australian). Sure the Lithium Carbonate salt refined at NAL is "IRA qualified" and down along the supply chain that's attractive to the auto OEM as they get to sell an EV to the consumer who can access the full $7,500 rebate ... 45X is big big actual money incentive (10% of Opex).

What SYQ needs to be able to do is operate across the cycle ... you just don't switch mines/concentrators/refineries on and off on price cycle whims. The end partner (i.e. Auto OEM) is building a platform for vehicle delivery that typically last 7-10 yrs ... and that should be the minimum for offtake and co-operative funding options to secure said (ex-China) supply.