That is piss funny BOC ... do you have the courage to throw a few posting handles out ... Plenty of posters here who say they are "all in", "bet the farm", "invested all I have" on Sayona. All I can say is, IMO, that's not investing. Diversification is part of any strategy no matter how deeply researched you think you are (and we know all the painful "talking points").
On a separate subject ... are posters familiar with the UFLP Act? Stands for Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention act ... targetted at China (of course) or more specifically companies taking "advantage" of the labor "situation" there.
Anyway, any company put on the list of breaching that act is immediately denied access to US markets .... i.e. their products cannot be imported into the USA (never mind tariffs).
Anyone wish to hazard a guess at some "targets" ... lawmakers looking squarely at CATL and Gotion (just Google CATL import ban UFLP).
That would be a big big deal were that to happen .... since CATL has what - 40% of global LiB market? And that would be not just Chinese made EVs ... think of all the other manufacturers that use CATL batteries.
Put that into some technological context also ... the CATL MGP battery ... which as been released into commercial mass production (with up to ~500 Wh/Kg energy density) ... supposedly that battery going into the 2025 Tesla Model Y made in Giga-Shanghai ... range of 600+ miles ... 1,000Km
Now the MGP battery is as CATL describes it - a "ternary+ battery" based on LFP ... we are all familiar with the term "ternary" right (3 elements) as used for NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt) and NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminium) LiBs (based on Lithium Hydroxide). The elements are now (supposedly) Manganese (and some say also Aluminum) along with Iron and Phosphate. LFP was already safer (esp temperature at which decomposition occurs) and this is further reinforced with the MGP battery.
Nonetheless, excluding such technology from the US market may be problematic ... unless of course they (the USA) has some ace to play. I think presently (happy to be corrected on this) LG Chem and Panasonic (for Tesla) are the 2 largest battery makers in USA ... but they are not US companies (like say Eveready in days of old). I can't name a US company off the top of my head manufacturing LiBs. Who will fill this gap???
For all that talk and slides on Gigafactories ... where are the US companies and US IP in this space? This is the picture I'm seeing in almost all presentations lithium related is some variation of this
Lots of Gigafactories and a scarcity of CAM plants (those are the ones buying the salts from refiners (a scarcity of those also).
TSLA is probably going to be next producing salts in N.A. (Hydroxide plant TX commission ~CYE 2024) followed by probably ABAT who have commissioned their Pilot Plant (also Hydroxide) in 2024 ... its a sedimentary deposit somewhat along the lines of Thacker Pass but with some IP that doesn't require acid leaching (which explains their low cost) ... they are at that step where the OEMs are "show me" because you don't build a full commercial 30Ktpa plant without a committed partner (BASF is a nice to have ... they are the CAM ... but an OEM is the end user you need in your OTA).
Looks like 2025/26 are going to be interesting for the US market.
I agree CATL is in breach of all ESG standards.
Ganfeng went the other way and was the first Lithium Company in the world to gain ESG Qualification in 2020 from memory.
A good article covering Ganfeng and some of your points re the Nth American market
https://mugglehead.com/ganfeng-lithium-gets-positive-grade-on-esg-initiatives-by-msci/
The NAL refinery refurbishment is the cheapest and fastest option for Lithium Chemical production in Nth America apart from Tesla's refinery mooted for late this year.IMO.
Just have to wait and see.
(20min delay)