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19/06/24

08:08

Post #: 74380850
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Originally posted by underworld: ↑

Hi guys, I have read a lot of reports and forecast on lithium lately, from both China and Western countries.

Of cause many lessons learned, and wished every day that I sold it back in 2022...but, let's face reality!

From all the articles that I have read, interestingly that all of them are pointing to the similar prediction. Lithium price is not at bottom yet, and it is likely to go lower, due to oversupply, in SHORT TERM (1-2 years). But from 2026, lithium market is likely to be in balance.

It is a simply "who can survive" game now! In order for the market to balance out on supply and demand, price needs to go further down to wipe out new and unsustainable miners. If this goes too aggressively, a supply deficit can be in play in 2026. If the price stays at this level, it will just take longer for market to balance out.

My gut feeling is telling me that, it is going to be ugly, unless magically demand starts to catch up. Like someone said here, I will not be surprised if it reaches 0.2c, if not lower. It is also trying to convince my to sell now and come back in 2026. But after 7 years of holding, I am prepared to hold until the 3rd lithium boom! It will come, just a matter of time. Even the chinese government is encouraging lithium companies to plan for long term, and acquire mines in this shit environment.

My only question and concern is, can we survive the next 2 years, without CR? I truely hope someone can convince me that we can. If we can't, we are doomed.....

For the first time ever, I change my sentiment to sell, for short term investors. (I just cannot press the sell button after all these years...)

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You’ve made some solid points about the challenges. While there's a short-term oversupply issue, don’t forget the regional dynamics in North America, especially with Sayona. Sayona’s got a strategic edge being in North America, which is quickly becoming a hub for battery and refining facilities. Lots of new projects, including battery gigafactories and lithium processing plants, are in the pipeline. These projects aim to boost the local supply chain for EVs and renewable energy storage, which should help stabilise regional demand for lithium.

On top of that, North American producers could benefit from favourable policies, tax credits, and ESG incentives. The US government is pushing hard to build a strong domestic supply chain for critical minerals, which could give companies a big boost. Tesla's refinery in Texas, set to open by mid-2024, it will produce enough battery-grade lithium for a million EVs annually. Plus, there are lots of new battery cell gigafactories coming online by 2025, involving big names like Ford, GM, and Stellantis, spread across various states.

Also, the US energy storage market hit a record for installations in Q1 2023, indicating a rising demand for energy storage solutions, which is great news for the lithium market.

SYA Price at posting: 3.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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