Unfortunately Rup, for me, that is more of a sign that China's plan is working than a good thing for Western Lithium Miners and auto OEMs
Simple plan really.
1. Using domestic sources (i.e Lepidolite and their brines up in NW China) mine as much as possible .... no matter the cost ... as its all underwritten by the CCP. That mining might be "independent" company or subsidiary of Chemical company or Battery Company or even a Chinese Auto OEM (e.g. BYD). Vertical integration enforced.
2. Extend that strategy to the next least Western friendly place on the planet (Africa & Middle East). Strangle the governments with "Belt & Road" initiatives and set on a strategy to cripple any western company related to lithium in Africa (e.g. LLL & AVZ) to grab as much mineral resource as possible
3. Repeat (2) wherever possible ... South America next logical target. Strong foothold in Bolivia and Argentina and working on Chile and Brazil.
4. Lock up longterm supply agreements based on a spodumene benchmark price that is based on China domestic and CIF ... which of course is flooded with domestic supply. That limits the cash flow and profits of the big Australia spodumene miners
5. Using cheap raw materials, drive down the price of refined materials by accepting a lower margin ... doesn't matter anyway as the Gov't enforced vertical integration relies on this flowing through the supply chain to the EV itself. Because Western Refiners are profit driven (after all we are capitalists) they will defer making the investments necessary until incentive pricing reached (apparently this is ~US$20k/t per Paul Graves). Plays right into the hands of the Chinese ... proof is in the commentary of deferrals from ALB and Arcadium.
6. Since the NEV OEMs from China are not ICE constrained ... attempt to flood the global auto markets with (supposedly) superior EVs at a much lower price than what TSLA and legacy OEMs can manufacture.
The scenario is being played out as we watch.
BYD has 35%+ market share of NEVs in China ... and as you say EV sales a booming in China
TSLA doesn't even have 10% in China (from what I read) and has fallen below 50% in US for first time
BYD is on target to surpass TSLA in H2/24 as the largest producer globally of EVs (~19%)
Because of this, investment banks can say
https://www.tradingview.com/news/mtnewswires.com:20240718:A3180571:0/
So in other words ...
1. Western Lithium has to cut back to conform with China plan ... or break that bloody plan by getting ex-China supply chain going ... the USA broke Russia in the cold war by outspending them and crippling their economy leading to downfall of Berlin wall .... the rest is history
2. Its just rinse and repeat ... unless we unplug from it
3. Your culprit in full view ... growing supply in a supposedly surplus market to crash prices further
4. That forecast is quite a bit lower in LCE terms than prior targets put out for 2030
Meerkats.
(20min delay)