Wow Big T , sorry to see you go...you certainly are one of the big characters on the forum.
And I agree, over the last few years, this certainly has been the most difficult time to hold this stock.
We have had some tough times......... but this is brutal.
I have my health, my loving family and a roof over my head......and I hope you do as well.
As for Sayona, the battle continues to try and keep them honest and for the company to be the best it can be.
I managed a meeting at head office last week, and still am non the wiser of how we will turn this around.
It felt a little positive, but it hinges heavily on a lithium price recovery.
The quarter coming up will be our best yet, in terms of production, efficiency, recoveries, mill thruput and revenues, but i crunched the numbers and its still not enough. The burn and bleed will stem, but it still points to a slow death, and without radical change, producing rock is not enough.
Using the same playbook is not enough...
The lithium price has been pushed to new lows, with most not fully comprehending China's ability to control pricing lower for longer.
Most analysts, including niche specialists like Fastmarkets, RK equity, J Lowry, and Benchmark minerals etc have gotten it wrong.
Entities who I listened to and trusted in understanding the markets, pricing and forecasts.
So with no end in sight, and a cyclic recovery also being in doubt due to the heavily leveraged control of China, in particular refining, there is probably more pain ahead.... a lot more pain.
We have a slow down from most in Australia (except PLS who hare producing and delivering more), slowdown in Sth America, but a stubborn Chinese domestic supply, and a ramp up in various regions of Africa.
So will the lithium market cycle, given This is not a normal market?
So where will that leave us?
Well, I hate to say this but it is the PLL offtake that is our most valuable at the moment.
The other 'deal'
we have going to the spot market, is with the blood sucking, immoral, heavily fined with human rights abuses, recently penalised for over US$1 Billion for bribery and market manipulation...Glencore.
How the F*** we ended up with these psychopathic leeches is beyond me....selling to them at around US$450/t after shipping, WMT and grade reduction.
And how the board cannot stitch up a proper offtake is beyond me....
They make PLL and Keith look like monks in a monastery, with their deal at least credited with helping us push our NAL bid over the line.
But to be associated with Glencore, pulling circa US$450/t for JV shipments is as unconscionable as it is unforgivable.
Realised price last quarter was US$604..with the PLL shipments propping up the price.
Our opex sits at around US$1000...how the hell are we going to get it below 604.....or worse yet, down to 450?
We WILL see improvements this quarter, but you are talking 50-60-70% cut in opex to get anywhere, and its just not going to happen.
So the slow death will continue...the market knows it...I know it....and I am so far down on my millions of shares, its not worth selling.
I sell em here and there to pay a few bills...and its fXXXXing painful.
And we think its painful now.........then there will come the consolidation, probably 25:1 , as JB has publicly stated as much to the RK boys.
As witnessed recently at Morella, it will just give the SP further runway to be sold down.
Their MC was HALVED shortly after consolidation.
Then will come the capital raising...or rights issue....more dilution...
The slow death continues....your investment, from its depths, halved again.
But I will hold on and continue the fight...offtake....government support.....carbonate, and a proper partner, because without it, we are finished.
Good luck everyone
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