Yeah not to nit pick ...
@arfbarfFirst - "none of the 12 analysts foresaw this crash" ... I believe GS, MS, MB were all in that group ... I sort of recall a lot of HC posters trashing their targets being to low ... I guess they weren't low enough at the time. If I have to choose between 3rd party analysts and HC posters I know which group I'm passing on too.
Second - "pricing is dependent on China spot" ... well yes Arf where else can that SC go? (and that's not a trick question). So it becomes a question of where/who is building out a Hydroxide network. Look I am not going to argue this point further. You know where there current build(s) are, where the future builds were, what's been placed on hold and how long that's going to take. We can revisit this again in 2028 but deals are being done "today" and what dictates that is the price offered in todays lithuim world. Now go back and read the post again. Whose number did I use?
"So that magic number is PLS paid ~US$181M per million metric tonnes of LCE".Go ahead ... trash PLS ... they clearly go no idea and HC posters know far more. And because I use PLS's number you have to make an adjustment to compare the MRE they are purchasing (from LRS) to what is being offered - the MRE of Moblan.
Third - "a lot of drilling has yet to be completed" - SO WHAT, there's always drilling going on. MRE's are always changing (annual update). I'm using the ACTUAL reported numbers from Jun 30, 2024. Your "projections" have thus far have been consistly wrong (maybe you could provide analyst forecasts too). So this is how it goes in M&A talks then ... You've got "x" tonnes at "$y" ... but you project "2X" at "y+50%" so I'll pay 3 times as much as its presently worth (call it $3B instead of $1B) and put down that extra $2B as "goodwill" on the balance sheet.
Lastly - "maybe POSCO isn't looking to overpay" - on that we are in agreement. And they are not "looking to get into the US auto market" they are already in it. They have a JV with GM to supply CAM. They are building a plant in Becancour. That CAM plant needs Hydroxide. Lucky for them one is being built in Becancour and their JV partner GM has a OTA with them. Didn't POSCO forecast a doubling from initial 30Kt to 60Kt annual cathode production in USA?
As you say ... we will see.
(20min delay)