Yes never say never in a sector like this and the evolution of SYA is a testament to that..
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The speed of change in the battery sector in particular make decisions around risky projects that have timelines 3 to 4 years away from production very hard to commit to or find finance for.
It's why I like the current path SYA is on, becoming better at something you are already good at and sell to refiners who are good at something we understand little about...one can't exist without the other so trying to screw each other is suicidal.
Vertical integration may be the holy grail , especially if you can mine, concentrate and refine at the same site, and that may yet happen at NAL, but it won't be done alone so the net effect is you may as well just be good at producing 100% spod with the aim of restricting shipping distances to a minimum.
As long as there's a need for Spodumene then the only issue is producing it at the lower end of the cost curve which of course is the current challenge, we can't do a lot about prices received.
The nature of the NAL mine means we will never be the cheapest producer but costs can certainly be reduced by increased production...thats the current plan and only time, money and demand can resolve that.
For me CY25 is about finalising MergeCo and opitimising NAL with CY26 being decision time on expansion and possibly OTA / partner time with a refiner in NA...all depend on demand hence product prices.
SYA is probably in a good a space as could be reasonably expected at the moment IMO, debt free, cashed up and producing while approaching breakeven in a firming price environment. Getting the merger over the line being the main potential fly in the ointment.
Management and the BOD have come under serious attack/abuse over the last 18months , a lot of it over the top and close to defamatory IMO , for me they have managed to avoid C&M and keep the company in a position to benefit immediately from any upside, during a serious market downturn and general turmoil that destroyed dreams and timelines and could easily have sent us off to the knackers yard.
So we'll done team on focusing on the basics not going off on flights of fancy..the cost is dilution which is the normal course of events for a start up without positive cashflow. The option was C&M or worse.
Cheers Whisky
(20min delay)