Some good insights there into the potential timeline.
And not to dismiss Pierre Lassonde's great works , however I'm not sure how applicable a ' strict ' adherence to it would apply here. Especially in a more volatile and sharp corrective ' Boom Bust ' commodities cycle.
So while you can see the exploration , discovery through feasibility ' UPSWING ' would apply along his initial curve when the commodity in question is in perceived to be in short supply and a bull market due to BOTH lagging exploration and limited build-out and ramping of production , its hard to make a case after the ' speculation ' phase brought on by the sharp and protracted downward commodity price cycle because in Sayona's case , it hasn't been able to enjoy the Institution inflow phase together with the recognized benefits of the operational improvements phase following its ramping to nameplate economics.phase.
You could argue though I guess that due to the proposed Merger , and the likelihood of a resurgence and possibly even a spike in lithium price cycle moving forward ; that we are effectively ' starting ' over with respects to the applicableness of the lassonde curve where given the proposed late in the year stock level build-up build into a higher anticipated lithium pricing environment.
And even in that ' start over ' Lassonde mach deux phasing , Sayona might actually be able to enjoy the benefits of the already proven and successful drill campaigns which have unveiled a significantly larger resource at Moblan as well as the nearer to production Ewoyaa project. Because given our timing ,we didn't actually realize any of that drilling and resource enhancement success at Moblan when others like Patriot and Winsome were receiving from the market on their respective drilling campaigns.
So there is a lot to be gained in a lassonde mach deux ' MergCo' overlay , but I would still like to think that the curve would be something of a hybrid between the Lassonde model and the Wyckoff representations of the Accumulation , Mark-up , and Distribution phases . You can even see how this will relate to any proposed consolidation of share capital given the amount which is currently on offer and being played with.
So yeah , it will definitely be potentially both interesting and exciting times ahead and which from these levels , I'm not really concerned either way. The wait will be the wait , and I'm sure there will be other favorable news in-between.
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