SYA (ASX) General Discussion Topics

Originally posted by SplitFusion: ↑
For those of you who don't like math, please move to the next post. But for those of you who would like to trace where we should be regardless of the NAL outcome (and can stand a little math) read on.
Here is my calculator comparing Sayona to Piedmont.
Gather Information

Shares (in billions)
Market Cap
Resource Size in Mt
Measured & Indicated
1
Sayona
1.4
$1,046,317,500
.4
2
Piedmont
3.74
$134,626,042
.5

First I need to create a ratio using the shares on issue. I do this by dividing SYA / PLL, which = 1.4 / 3.74 = .37 (rounded) or 37%. This ratio gets us apples to apples on the 2 so if all else was equal between the 2 Sayona’s share price should be equal to about 37% of Piedmonts share price. This would put Sayona at around 27 cents.
Now you could say but wait doesn’t Piedmont own 20% of Sayona, and also purchased 25% of Sayona Quebec so isn’t about 40% of piedmonts price directly coming from Sayona? There is a little problem with timing here because we only know that piedmont acquired 9.9% thus far with the remainder to happen in February (no specific date given which usually means by the end of the month). Nevertheless we will take the 40% of the Piedmont price before we apply the 37% ration.
So now we have .75 * .4 = .3 so the starting price should be .75 - .3 = .45
Now we can apply our ratio and we come up with .45 *.37 = .1665 or about 17 cents a share.

We still have one more thing to do because the actual resource sizes are not the same either. Sayona is actually 25% larger than Piedmont so we need to add this in as well. .1665 * 1.25 = .2081

So a fair price today comparing these 2 would be about .21 AUD cents a share.

Reminder that this calculation is only using data related to Authier, it does not factor in Tansim or NAL or Gold or Graphite or WA Lithium, and I have chosen to call the off-take agreements equal even though Sayona’s is for a much longer time and for a greater quantity (1/2 for sayona for 14 years and 1/3 for Piedmont for 5 years)

I know there are additional variables that can and should be applied to get this perfect, but I am confident that none of those small variances could ever get us close to our current .036 price.

This is my research, this is my opinion.... I do not want anyone to buy or sell based on what I have posted here. I just want to share my thoughts and give you just a small hint of why I am so patinate about this stock.
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In light of all that do you have any ideas as to why then is such a huge disparity between the SP of the two companies.

I'll throw in a few:

1. Can a contributing factor be Sayona being based in Australia and having such a diminutive MC by comparison

2. Can it also be attributed to seemingly slow process of achievements - particularly with past failures to deliver and the resultant negative overhang of company perception in the lithium space

3. That perception from (2) also weighed heavily due to the association with the failure of AJM

4. Perception of failure not helped by the delays attributed to NAL bid decision and perhaps if successful, at the possible negative implications of costings and conditions

5. Subject to BAPE approval with it's delayed dates

It appears to me that Sayona is in the middle of a balancing act and needs a few more wins prior to any SP appreciation from current and that is irrespective of what is perceived as being undervalued compared to peers currently.

As it stands SYA is in fact is slowly winding back some of the recent hyped up gains on lack of any further positive news.

Focus has been thus far solely on lithium - if they find some gold that will provide another badly needed spark.

I really hope that SYA gains traction and gets the upper hand in being recognised as a company that delivers. The jury is still out deliberating.