Lots of talk around ' timetables ' and the what if's and reasons Management might allow significantly more SPP allocations than most would have expected. So whilst some are talking of scale- backs and closing the issue early ( only 3 days to go now ) , there has been almost zero chance being factored in that the SPP will allow up to and including the entire eligible $30,000.
So if we just wrap a few numbers around the concept by starting with the Shareholder composition in the last Annual Report ( per below ) , we can see that at that time there were 2,102 shareholders classed as ' unmarketable parcels ' which of course would have been those calculated as under $500 at the time when the SP was tracking at around .009 cents.
So had the SPP been done then , that would have left around 600 holders in the 10,001 to 100,000 category PLUS the entire 1,936 in the 100,001 and over category for a total of 2,536 .
However what we know from there is that from September 2020 to the time of the rights issue , the SP had appreciated to lets say 4.0 cents which may or may not have increased the 10,001 - 100,000 holding category to around 85% based on the take up of the 1 for 6 entitlement.
So now we would have an estimated 3,525 holders holding ' Marketable ' parcels of stock and who would therefore be in a position to participate significantly in any future offers.
Then based on some earlier numbers analysis I had put up back around the time of the rights issue , it had been postulated that around 1.6 billion shares had been added in total since September with 1.3 billion of those in round numbers falling outside the Top 20. So if we then postulate from the numbers that back in September the 2,102 of ' Un-Marketable ' parcels held only approximately 116,777,778. So if we take off this balance from the approximate 2,803,933,159 total amount of SOI at that time , we are left with an average holding balance of around 1,059,604 across the ' Marketable ' parcel holders of eligible 2,536.
So if we then assume this average holds across the potential new holders who have joined in on the increase of approximately 1.3 billion new shares ( excluding Top 20 ) - The additional holders who would have then been added would be somewheres around the 1,300 mark.
So we would then have around 4,825 ' Marketable ' holders with potential balances wishing to participate in the up to $30,000 SPP maximum of shares being applied.
But if we then account for the fact that anyone with a balance of over 5 million and approaching 10 million which would still be outside of the Top 20 holders would be less inclined to take up a further 400,000 shares , it is possible that the amount of participating holders with the intent on taking the maximum could be closer to that of around 3,500 or just under and thereby if taken up raising around another $90 or $100 million or between 1.2 and 1.333 billion new shares. If this was then scaled back by 50 % it would raise between a further $45 and $50 million with an additional 600 million and 750 million new shares which is around double the existing format of the SPP. ( or thereabouts ) .
So what I find particularly interesting though is why make the SPP $30,000 limit when they could have made it $15 ...if they didn't intend in some way potentially ' accelerating ' the amount being raised. So in other words , they go with $30 k knowing they will most likely scale back to 50% and the ones who apply are then content , and they walk away with potentially double the amount raised with another $45 - $50 million .
I guess we have to keep in mind the ' excluded ' applications coming from those who are simply churning their share holdings on a continuous basis. And its hard to judge how many holders and what sort of quantity of shares this represents , but given the most recent trading period these last several weeks , it may be significantly higher than most would think and thereby easily bringing the total participating holders to numbers more closely aligned to the 3,000 and thereby $90 million in additional funds raised. So that's my best guess for a further $45 - $50 million raised by this SPP.
What I do like about this SPP and which should probably be expected due to general ' Black Out ' policies around raising's is that apart from their announcement on the 6th August regarding ' Boost ' to W.A Lithium exploration via mainly Altura's commencement of THEIR earn in agreement with Sayona .....is that they ( our BOD ) have been relatively if not extremely quiet in regards to any further announcements re: the NAL acquisition. Which again one would expect to let the SP run on its own merits rather than be seen to be ' spruiking ' the take up before it closes.
So this leaves me with a longer than I would have liked post - so I will leave for the time being my post containing new information regarding expected ' Timetables '
(20min delay)