The beauty now as someone ' reaffirmed ' yesterday is that Sayona's Valuation is in excess of $1 Billion now.
And with that comes a certain level of increased benefits and opportunities it can put forward and leverage from the ' Private Capital Funding ' Universe(s)
Remembering that when Palinghurst first put its hand up on its original proposal for Nemaska which it then withdrew when it was confirmed that Nemaska was struggling - that Nemaska in the lead up December 2019 and its final death throes , its market capitalization was only just over C$100 million.
Since then , we now know that Pallinghurst followed through with it's accepted BID following Nemaska's short administration with pretty much the same amount offered from their first offer. We also know that with their now Partners in Livent owning 50% each , that they are prepared to invest some circa C$600 million on further developing Nemaska's ultimate business plans including its conversion facility .
So ALL up they ( owners of NEW Nemaska ) will have spent or have planned to spend some $740 - $750 million since acquisition and the emergence from its relatively short administration.
So whilst Nemaska was a previous stock market listed entity with its last MC of over C$100 million , it' scirca C$140 million at an implied lending rate of 5% would have underpinned a valuation BEFORE any further investment of around C$2.8 billion. Add to that it's approximate $600 million of further development capital at a modest implied discount rate of 8% and an IRR of say 30% , and you have potentially a project with a valuation of well in excess of 5 or 6 $ billion. resource.
So I guess then why should it be any surprise that Canada's Largest Lithium resource and it's ONLY historical almost fully built Lithium chemicals processing plant is currently worth over $1 billion and is not actually worth in the range of $2 - $2.5 billion at least right now.
Well I'll tell you why it is mostly surprising to some .....and that is that NAL was NOT a listed company just prior to its listing and so we don't really have that starting point of Market Value and FUTURE spend commitment that the now unlisted Nemaska now has.
But here's the things we do know . We know that the CASH cost to Sayona and Piedmont was around $110 million ( Sayona CASH component was around $50 million ) . So $110 million at say 5% implied rate at which I.Q would otherwise lend out these proceeds to on other investments , that's C$2.2 billion right there.
We also know that the plant itself had cost some circa C$450 million in capital expenditures previously spent. So that's at least another circa approximate C$500 million could be at least added in comparative NPV terms to any other project of that sort of ilk and previous CAPEX spent.
So that's now a total value of around C$2.7 billion in ' Project Terms ' of comparative value from JUST the NAL acquisition.
And this is even before we consider the couple of hundred more million in future capital in the same manner as Pallinghurst and Livent had done with Nemaska's acquisition which no doubt will have a significantly shorter economic ' Payback ' period should it obviously be used for producing the much higher valued added Lithium Carbonates and ultimately Hydroxides.
So that brings us to a total of around C$2.9 billion or A$3.118 billion @ 75% share to Sayona being equal to around A$2.339 billion without doing anything else whatsoever.
So what then about the Capital required to spend on Authier , or the value of the expansion drilling and scoping study at NAL for its untested 12,000 metres across 42 drill holes. There's probably at least another $300 million in increased JORC , LOM , and NPV's across JUST these TWO operations and not even considering what TANSIM might be worth down the track. So there's another A $225 million worth of Market Cap for Sayona right there and bringing Sayona's share to around A$2.564 billion.
O.K so then you have the Australian GOLD and LITHIUM value as underpinned by its VAST acreage of ' Nearology ' in BOTH minerals. And when you compare what Sahona has here to what others are seemingly stacking onto their ' unproven ' values , you have at least another A$160 million of project valuation and thereby bringing the GRAND totals to somewhere's around A$2.724 billion ........and which is very similar to some of the previous and earlier valuation figures which were presented by at least two other Build-Up methods of valuation including combined Authier / NAL project NPV as well as comparative combined EBITDA valuations as against Industry peers. We also looked at the NAL acquisition from an implied ' Venture Capital ' valuation based on the different stages of Investment coming in from different partners including Piedmont and I.Q over the last 9 months which also supported a similar valuation.
So I don't reckon when you look at it in so many different ways , and so may angles ....that it can be seen as a mere coincidence that you arrive almost magically at more or less the same valuations.
And so when you put all this together along with a few other comparisons of I.Q break-even ' Payback ' on their $20 million of $1 preferred stock issued at the same time as ' Acuity ' - that that is where you ultimately see the $2.5 - $ 2.7 billion Market Cap which will take Sayona's SP to somewhere's around the 40 cent marker via first locking in 34 - 36 for I.Q.
So they've ( I.Q ) have already theoretically done it for Nemaska .....and they are even further off than Sayona's NAL in achieving the ultimate Lithium Chemicals production.
Imagine then if Nemaska via Pallinghurst & Co. were to then join or link up in some way to that of what Sayhona has to offer through say NOVONIX and its connections to Trevor St. Baker's St Bakers Innovation Fund , Quentin Flannery and / or even the illustrious and ambitious Energy Transformation outfit in Riverstone Holdings LLC.......
I guess we're ALL just gonna have to sit back and wait and see......
(20min delay)
