It's a tough ask and a real shame that it has come to a point where Investors and persons CANNOT even contribute to an investment discussion with well researched information for fear of being singled out or even prosecuted at best as an ' Upramper ' , and at worst a ' Market manipulator ' .
Did it even occur to those who are making these claims , that the people who are genuinely participating in these discussions are those who hold these companies in their portfolios as an investment.
So since when was is a criminal act to discuss Industry specific or Stock specific news on an Investment forum when you actually own the stock. And it would appear that even ' Silence ' and no participation is being construed and / or implied to represent some level of Guilt by association. However , I would say that downramping of a stock with ZERO information and ZERO ownership , by association would be more the concern to the Authorities here and NOT the providing of factual and or even speculative information which fosters or promotes a healthier Investment discussion which in turn provides valuable or beneficial information .......and which this information is offered without motive or intended malice , or purposeful opportunity other than to help others learn more about their Investments or approach to other investments.
So having said that - lets look at some important ' Relationship ' learning's and how these can perhaps help others to becoming better investors.
So I found it rather interesting as I continue my daily research and findings , that the Group Head of Corporate Finance at Pallinghurst Goup Mr. Sean Thijsse who will be guest speaking at the upcoming Xplore minerals conference which starts on 25th October 2021.
For those who don't know , he ( Sean Thijsse ) was in fact the Joint Chief Financial Officer at Nemaska from December 2020 when they went into Administration until current ( which I find strange ) , because obviously at that time it couldn't possibly have been known that Pallinghurst would end up being the successful bidder in August 2021. What was he doing there when they had obviously dropped their C$600 million equity stake and debt offer from months earlier in 2020.
And prior to his latest NEW role of ' Top Dog ' Director and Group Head of Corporate Finance at Pallinghurst which is purported to be less than 1 year from commencement 2021 , he was Vice President at Pallinghurst from 2019 to 2021
Prior to that .he was also Senior Investment Associate at Pallinghurst for 7 years from 2011 to 2018......where he left for 1 year to take on the role of Strategy, Commercial , Projects at Jupiter Mines who Pallinghurst was also a major shareholder in at that time and up until March / April 2019 when they finally off sold their near 20% stake.
But it's gets even more Interesting that prior to that he was a Director at OM Tshipi (S) pte ltd for 1 year between 2016 - 2017 , and for those who don't know , this is significant because this was the mob which was effectively ' vended ' into Jupiter Mines back in around 2009 which saw this huge African ' North Cape 'Manganese Project together with its Yilgarn I.O assets.
So his 1 year appointment in 2016 - 2017 pre-dated Jupiter's original acquisition in March 2010 to acquire Pallinghurst Co‐investors 49.9% interest in Tshipi é Ntle Manganese Mining (Pty) Ltd when Jupiter to issued 1,159m shares at 30 day vwap of A$0.21 . This of course amounted to a total consideration of A$245m to PallinghurstCo‐Investors. At the time , the Acquisition was unanimously recommended by the Jupiter Board with Pallinghurst Co‐investors ultimately holding approximately 85% of Jupiter post acquisition
Then in 2019 ( less than 2 years after his 1 yr stint at Tshipi , Pallinhurst Consolidated ( Cayman ) Limited or PCCL a subsidiary of Gemfields divested it's final 7.44% ( 145,845,372 shares ) representing its remaining stake in Jupiter Mines for 32.8 cents per share to AMCI Euro Holdings BV FOR a $44.24 million . At the time of the sale they ( Gemfields) also retained the 2.5 cent dividend declared by Jupiter for a further $3,646,134 ....with Jupiter thanking PCCL for its support over the last 10 years.
Sheez more like PCCL should have thanked Jupiter for literally the near enough $400 - $500 million it ( Pallinghurst ) would have stripped in Dividends, Capiital returns and orginally vended Shares. And who says you can't get paid for the same sales of an asset ' TWICE ' !!
I mean Tshipi (S) OM was even created until around Septemeber 2013 as per following details and after Pallinghurst A$245 million.....
JMS - Jupiter Mines Announces Creation of OM Tshipi (S)
Jupiter Mines announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Jupiter Kalahari (Mauritius) (JKML) and Tshipi E Ntle Manganese Mining, in which JKML has a 49.9% stake, have signed a JV Agreement (JVA) with, inter alia, Ntsimbintle Mining and OM Materials Trades (S). OM Trades is a 100% owned subsidiary of OM Holdings. The JVA provides for the marketing of the manganese ore produced by Tshipi via a Singapore-based company jointly owned by JKML, Ntsimbintle and OM Trades and trading under the name of OM Tshipi (S) (OMT). Each JV partner is to hold a 33.3% stake in OMT. OMT will combine the network and management expertise of all of its shareholders. Colin Ouwehand will be seconded from his current position at OM Group to lead OMT as its CEO with an exclusive focus on marketing of Tshipi ore.
So the reasons I am in part highlighting this is so as to understand the dynamic relationships ......lets call it the ' Smart Money ' which is obviously involved in some of these historical deals which when ' flushed out ' help us gain an understanding more about some of the more recent and ' NEW ' deals - Particularly in teh sense of the obvious shift to the Critical Minerals space and Electrification and decarbonsing renewable's space.
Because , if we can understand the connections about where the so called ' Smart money is going and moving to , we can obviously understand where exactly we sit with our investment in terms of further upside growth , accumulation , distribution and / or indeed the sell off or retrace in valuation.
So this Guy ( Sean Thijsse ) in terms of all this speaks for itself really......and right down to his Linked in Interests which Include JP Morgan , PwC , Goldman Sachs , BHP , Black Rock , Glencore, , Evercore , Nouveau Monde Graphite .....and even Cantor Fitzgerald....to name just a few.
So I can see the BHP connection since ex- BHP Boss Brian Gilbertson was the BOTH co-founder and major shareholder of Pallinghurst Group .....as well as the Chairman of Pallinghurst until he retired from this role and stepped down in April 2021. I can also see the Glencore as well as Nouveau Monde Graphite who Pallinghurst is a major stakeholder are also members of the Global Battery Alliance along with Natural Resources Canada as well as Propulsion Quebec who is a ' Trial Member ' So the connection there is strong .
There is also the connections to PwC who not only were the Court appointed Monitors to the now Pallinghurst owned Nemaska , they PwC we also appointed as Nouveau Monde's Auditors in June 2021 just 3 months ago. They were also coincidentally the advising Accountants to our ( Sayona's ) world class NAL bid team. So talk about keeping ALL under the same roof.eh ?.......
And we ALL should be aware of the strong Investment analogy that ' All Roads ' ultimately lead back to Goldman Sachs as we had already seen from my previous posts where the Co founders and Managing Directors of Riverstone Holdings LLC had both come from very senior positions at Goldman Sachs. Well it turns out that the Co- managing partner and Co -founder alongside Gilbertson of Pallinghurst Group Mr. Arne H. Frandsen who had over 10 years of Investment Banking experience at Goldman Sachs as well as JP Morgan where he provided various strategic advice on structuring mergers and acquisitions and list as Company Interest as Albemarle Corp as well as Key Influencers in none other than the British Leader Boris Johnson , Goldman's Chirman & CEO David Solomon as well as the NYSE's President Stacey Cunningham. And this makes sense since the dual listing of Nouveau Monde which started trading on the NYSE just this year on May 24th 2021. So very powerful and influential people , as well as avery strong lineage back to Goldman Sachs.
He Frandsen is was interestingly ALSO on the BOD of Nemaska from December 2020 as well as being the Chairman of Nouveau Monde Graphite
So going back even further to illustrate the History and connections of Nouveau and Nemaska , you will find that BOTH the previous Director , President & CEO of Nemaska Mr Guy Bourassa who quit Nemaska in Feb 2020 as well as the EX- BAPE Chief and now legal counsel and advisor at McCarthy Tetrault who also just happened to be advising Sayona Quebec on its own recent BAPE procedures......were also Directorsup until November 2020 in Nouveau Monde Graphite.
So what I'm trying to show here is the very STRONG connections to TWO separate Battery Minerals mining operations - ie Nemaska ( Lithium ) Nouveau ( Graphite & Anodes ) which seemingly are being undeniably drawn together over time through the cross representations and through the current common interests being expressed by the Pallinghurst Group.
But just going back to the ' Financial Chief ' and Xplor Guest Speaker Sean Thijsse - even when you go back to his 1 year stint at Tshipi ( S ) IN 2016 - 2017 around the time that Jupiter would have been discussing their 2nd recapitalized and reincarnated IPO float which was launched in March / April 2018 - one year almost exactly on from there on 15th April 2019 an equity research report was put out by Cantor Fitzgerald on the 18th April with a price target of 65 cents.( which it never reached ) - highest it got was 42 cents on September 2019.
So he ( Thijsse ) can be seen to have his hands ALL over this gradual move away by Pallinghurst from these more traditional minerals as well as the Shift towards the Energy Minerals since as far back as 2016 ......and ALL in connection and most likely at the directions of the Pallinghurst upper executive echelons.
I'll explain further where I feel ALL these connections are leading , but lets just look at a few more which came at the time the Ex - BHP Gilbertson stepped down as Chairman of Pallinghurst earlier this year. O.K ....so he is still currently trying to hold onto his Chairman's role at Jupiter Mines at the backdrop of the Shareholders call for a BOD spill based on remuneration disagreements as well as Growtth Strategies ......but what is more interesting is that when he stepped down at Pallinghurst , Frandsen appointed an ' Advisory Panel ' consisting of 6 uniquely profiled members . And one could almost think that this Panel is a ' BOD in waiting '. Just what for or what purpose is the question. That's 6 potentially high paid Individuals added to the Pallinghurst management stables.
O.K so who are they. ? Well you have a Dr. Rod Baxter who took up the vacant Chair position as well as on the advisory panel who comes from South Africa and is a PhD in thermodynamics . He also attended ISEAD in France and Stanford in California for both leadership and finance programs. He was a senior executive and divisional director at Anlgo Platinum as well as being a non-executive director of ASX listed Trigg Mining ( TMG ) . Previously he was also Managing director of Consolidated Minerals Limited.
There is also a fellow by the name of George Nakos who specializes in M&A who is a Chartered Accountant educated ALSO in South Africa. There is Betty Joy Leblanc as well as Director of Corporate Communications at Lithium Americas Corp. as well as at Canada Nickel.. There is Dr Lumpkile Mondi who was Chief Economist for a leading South African Development Finance Institution and was also educated again at South Africa's University of the Witwatersrand where he also obtained a PhD in Economics. Then there is Julien Naginshi who is an International mining lawyer who is fluent in French is a US and French Citizen , and who also served as General Council to Pallinghurst for 6 years prior to becoming an external strategic advisor.
And lastly on this panel is a fellow by the name of Garth Higgo who is both an engineer and accountant and who was ALSO educated in Africa at the University of Johannesburg....who coincidentally was also a former Managing Director of ASX listed Triton Minerals ( TON ) who almost coincidentally are currently involved with Graphite with their Ancuabe Graphite Project in Eastern Mozambique.
So while Higgo is not only longer the MD of Triton , there are a LOT of parallel's and ties here to not only Africa ...but also African Graphite experience. He is was also appointed the President of Pallinghurst Australia in around the same time as he took up his position on this Pallinghurst ' Advisory Panel '
So I guess in so far as Higgo and the African connections , I guess this all makes sense given Pallinghurst more recently found interest in not only Canadian Graphite via Nouveau , but also Canadian Lithium - via its acquisition into Nemaska.
And just recapping some interesting statistical comparisons on Nouveau Monde Graphite who following a reverse stock split as stated earlier listed on the NYSE in May. When it advised of the proposed listing in February its stock jumped 17% bringing the 2021 total to around 84 % and the yearly total to 1,126 per cent gains.
On a comparative basis , the circa C$700 million Nouveau has a price to book ratio of 211.1 , a price to cashflow of 25.8 and a debt to equity of point 52 after raising C$22 million back in 2 rounds in January and February. Interesting that Nouveau is ALSO planning to build a Li-ion Graphite battery anode facility as well as well as running its Graphite mining and processing at its Metawinie graphite project and had stated that after gaining the NYSE listing would be pursuing the raising of approximately $500 million over the next 25 months.
So the point I'm trying to emphasize here is with respects to Pallinghust , its Executive Management Team and in particular it's ' Chief ' Financial boffin is that they , " the Smart Money ' if you will , the Investor ' Elite ' ......They are the ones who control not only the directions , the money flows , the projects and the WHOLE NARRATIVE ........including the NEWS Flow and and timing of Markets and Investments are these people like him who are behind the whole thing.
Now there are those who speak of the ' Algo's and the ' Investor Bots ' as if they are some sort of enemy etc etc.........but these are just another fancy way of expressing the modern techniques that are available to these Groups of Investors , and its how we set about ' reading the room ' if you like by interpreting the overall moves and directions.
So to illustrate this strong underpinning of direction by the ' Smart Money ' circles , I would turn the discussions to one of who I would call the fathers of ' Technical ' investing and the study of charts by referring to the American Stock Market Investor and one time editor of the Wall Street Journal Richard Wyckoff . Remembering that this fellow actually died in 1934 at the age of only 61 and having lived through at least 2 depressions and financial crisis's and subsequent rebounds and arguably one of the most saturated periods time around human invention and BOTH the creation and destruction of financial Capital.
So he ( Wyckoff ) was a very curious Investor who was predominantly interested in the underlying trends and logic surrounding stock market actions....so much so that he developed what was referred to as the Wyckoff Technique. And this techniques was essentially premised around how the so called ' Professional Interest ' ( Smart Money ) involved in the stock market go about buying and selling securities and how they set about scaling their market campaigns with other ideals such as the ' Composite Operator ' And how Wyckoff's theory incorporated this concept was by suggesting that an experienced view of the market would regard the LARGER market trends as an expression of a SINGLE MIND ( or in this case several controlling minds with obvious common goals and financial clout ) . So he would go on to premise that this ' Composite Man ' or ' Operator attracts the Public or retail which he or that group have already accumulated a large quantity of shares in , and that in his view it was best as an investor from a Psychological and strategy advantage point of view , and to as he had said in order to " stay in harmony with the Omnipotent players " it was best to follow these market omnipotent market controlling participants in order to grow their portfolios.
So he also stated something to the effect of that while Markets and their events don't correlate exactly , you will find that they Rhyme. And so part of his theorems where put to work using Mathematics supported by volume analysis in the way of Charts. And these charts much in the same way as those which have be used to show the ' Cycle ' of an emerging mining explorer / producer have their own cycles as expressed in Schematics or Charts as they are more often called.
But essentially he stated that the ' Cycle ' would reflect 4 Major Components in the Cycle and that the Cycles could represent any given period or even a time frame within a time frame.
So his 4 components of his construct was that each cycle started with the Accumulation phase which led into what he called a ' Mark-up ' phase and from their went through its Distribution phase until ultimately leading into the ' Mark Down ' phase.
So without getting into a full blown history lesson , I have take a recent example of a typical Wyckoff schematic and compared it to a Wyckoff constructed current example using FMG as my example.
I have chosen FMG because of the similarities and parallels am endeavoring to throw back to Pallinghurst , it's history in IO and other minerals as well as how it relates to its new found interests in Quebec , the North American Markets , and obviously it's electrification or battery minerals of both Graphite and Lithium.
So what you can see by comparing Wyckoff's typical illustration to that of the Australian I.O play is that they are almost exactly identical. And i would welcome anyone to do their own Wyckoff schematic on anything they like. One could even do one on the DOW or Nasdaq which would fit the overall narrative or controlled and contrived market backdrop which started with the concerted GLOBAL capital liquidity inflows from the ' West ' . So the Narrative has played out exactly how they ( the Smart Money ) wants it to play out with the rise and rise of the DOW and other indices. The trouble is now and something these controlling pundits may or may not have factored in ......or at least factored in for their own benefits is the sizable increase to ' Other ' participants vis a vis Reddit / Robinhood type ' en masse ' investors. Now whether these Investor end up being the ' Wyckoff ' bag holders in 3 , 4 or 5 years time will remain to be seen.......But I personally don't think it will necessarily play out this way.
So what does it mean.......this Wyckoff stuff. Well essentially what Wyckoff would have said is that the ' Smart Money ' and market controlling participants would have accumulated the the play ( which they did ) , controlled the narrative surrounding I.O in the Global sense ( which they do and did ) , sold out at the Top as IO enjoyed a prolonged multi year high in prices ( which I would say they did ) ,......while then controlling the narrative again and / or capitalizing or exasperating the fall in IO further through the media and social media ( which they did ) ......so that the scared retail are the ones holding the bag on the panic selling or ' Mark Down ' .
So when this ' Mark Down ' trend then ends , you would then see another accumulation phase perhaps commence off the back of further controlled market ' Narrative ' by these ' Omnipotent ' players.
So keep in mind that this Chart is only 1 year from around 30th November 2020 and whilst this period was obviously significantly effected by the global pandemic and COVID -19 , it is interesting in the sense that the IO prices continued to rise almost counter intuitively against broader economic theory. Even GOLD came off and plateaued much earlier. So it was the ' Narrative ' which was controlled to allow the ' Smart Money ' to exit at the top And while one might argue that there were a lot of extenuating recent circumstances like the potential collapse of the Chinese property developer , general Geopolitical events effecting Chinese and Global growth ...etc...etc..... But I would argue that these convenient ' causation's ' are a mere sideshow and hence been made to be more an ' opportunistic ' events which the ' Omnipotent ' players were happy to let snowball while they set about commencing their whole ' rinse and repeat ' Wyckoff psychological patterns. And they clearly use the media and social media ' Crowd Media ' type tactics in running these Market rhyming patterns over and over again. And so this market phenomenon is NOT new.
The importance here though in so far as it relates to Sayona , is that where exactly do you as an Investor think given the comparisons to its Peers , the comparisons to this emerging Industry , and the comparisons to Sayona's North American Market.......where would you think Sayona sits in its place on this Wyckoff schematic.
And to answer this question and again , the reason I have brought up the Investor Pallinghurst into the example is that that whole Jupiter Mining ' Set-Up ' from whoa to go was about 9 years and around $400 million dollars pure gain later for the affiliates of Pallinghurst. And I guess in a sense to how that relates and or compares to Pallinghurst new found interests in Quebec Graphite and Lithium is that they are virtually only at year 2 in a cycle which may be much less than 10 years and one which will required them to in part commit to in current dollars terms in excess of perhaps C $1 billion or more. O.K , they have somewhat resolved this through the NYSE listing of Nouveau Monde Graphite and their quest for $500 million over the next 25 months . But for those who can't see that this is ALL part of the accumulation and ' Mark-up ' phases that Wyckoff spoke about .......need to look at it again.
So what might we see from here in so far as Pallinghurst. Well my guess is that despite Quebec's comments of not wanting a future listing .....and knowing Pallinghurst track record here , I would say it is virtually a certainty that we will see a listing of Nemaska.
And this will impact significantly on the valuation of Sayona. Heck one could even strongly argue an M&A case in this environment where you might see the Australian li-ion Battery Anode $2.75 Billion BEHEMOTH who is significantly operating Canadian funded research in Canada and Quebec , that it sees Nouveau and its Becancour battery material plant as a ' Tasty ' morsel ahead of its own Quebec anode producing plant. And this of course would have potentially huge ramifications for Sayona should they themselves find themselves as part of the Lithium - Graphite - Li-ion battery anode Quebec supply linkages.
So in conclusion , one could mount a significant argument that Sayona's price charts is still only at the accumulation and / or ' Mark- Up ' phases and that there is obviously a significant amount more for this to play out given that Pallinghurst as history has shown does NOT spend the sort of monies it has spent unless there is a significant ' Pay-Out ' for its stakeholders which may or may not includes the likes of Goldman Sachs & Co......or ALL those ' Omipotent ' players that Wyckoff would have told you to follow ' in Harmony ' .
So whether you get the opportunity to accumulate more or at lower price levels is the real question for most here , but given that Sigma Lithium is tracking at a market capitalization of only A$16 million less than that of Authier who is arguably positioned much better going forwards , I fail to see a solid economic or financial case to say that we should be valued lowe than them much less being in some sort of ' Mark Down ' phase of the market pricing that some are suggesting on this forum.
These are of course ONLY my opinions as BOTH a current investor and holder of Sayona shares , as well as a regular d Stock Market participant and avid market historian for over 40 years. .
(20min delay)