Thank you for your post
@ashakkarwal I know it is a lot to take in from one post , but I reckon there might just be some elements of this theory being missed here in terms ts of the overall thesis and the connections in the examples I've illustrated.
Wyckoff doesn't set a specific time-frame for his ' Composite Man ' / Composite Mind Thesis to play out and that there can indeed be smaller Wyckoff patterns within the overall patterns. So I didn't say that his phases are restricted by time. In fact I actually stated the opposite when it came down to Sayona.
His theorems only postulate that there are clear phases where these ' Omnipotent ' players who control the process ' Accumulate ' their BUY positions to then through the ' controlled ' narrative enjoy the ' Mark-Up ' or breakout phases to the point at some time in the future to re-distribute their holdings at what is suggested to be the 'Top ' of the market and whereby they are largely ' Out ' of the play as the less than sophisticated ' sheeple ' type follower investors get spooked and panic in the ' Mark Down ' phase where these ' Omnipotent ' players if any are left are also at points staging and controlling the whole exit strategy.
So essentially it has nothing to do with these Company making events and development milestones or future acquisition which you mention because his theories would postulate that the ' Cycles ' that surround these events or expectations are and / or the expected narrative and timings around the controlled dropping of news is also controlled by these organised and select Industry Insiders .
And this is why you have schematics graphs like the one Veraplak85 keeps dropping into the forum which highlight the expected oscillation's of ' Value ' expectations surrounding certain points of a Mining / Developer / Producers evolutionary progression.
I'm not a fan of that graph either by the way because it doesn't obviously apply to every company in every single circumstance. Like ti doesn't even really apply to Sayona really because it doesn't account directly for the HUGE re-rate on confirmation of the NAL acquisition which is a former Plant which was already producing .
But the Whyckoff charts do account for this ' anomaly ' with Sayona because it recognizes the FIRST leg of the re-rate where the ones who were in the know would ahve been accumulating at prices as low as under 1.0 cent right through and after the 1 for 6 SPP in May.
So even with the more sideways pattern at 15 - 15.5 cents , while there were those who were suggesting that this was mere a distribution from these ' Omnipotent ' players to less sophisticated and normal retail investors - and this might have even been considered an emergence of a briefer Wyckoff pattern at that time. However , the price held at this level until it re-tested the 17.5 - 18 level as well as going higher and which has now appeared to settle back to another sideways pattern of what I would say is still a controlled accumulation with obviously a simultaneous ' look ' of distribution until further expected news.
But what I was also highlighting in my post was that this ' Early ' phase in the Wyckoff overall Cycle is still very much intact and what I would suggest is still a considerable ways off that FIRST leg which rises higher and higher in Wyckoff's suggested ' Mark Up ' phase.
But clearly People here are struggling with the concept of ' Value ' around Sayona mining. And I think that is largely due to the perception's of last year and beyond when the Sp was sub 1.0 cents and and Market Cap sitting around A$25 million.
So I don't think people can fathom the reality of where , how and why Sayona has been able to manage such a Massive Turnaround whereas there are those like me who are not all that phased as to why or how this has come about.
However , I have been following Sigma Lithium ever since the days well before the Collapse of Altura. In fact , I often compared Altura's development and progress to that of Sigma's . In terms of Resource , Management and similar consulting groups , quality of projected resource , cost of capital , tonnage ......whatever it was I made the comparisons. And what you found even back then that when Altura's Market Capitalization was circa A$ 50 + million . Sigma's was also thereabouts around $120 - $140 million.
So now , without much change in Sigma in so far as it's entering actual production and producing its spod verses Altura actually having done all that ......is that Sigma is now almost worth A$1 billion or almost 8 times the size it was when I was comparing it to Altura.
So why then should any of us be all that surprised when we see Sayona at similar valuations when it has already in existence Plant size as large as Altura , a resource HUB which is effectively larger and the largest in North America and the near term ability to be producing BOTH Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxides which is even some period off in capabilities for PLS who is now worth over $6 billion and who put on over $2 billion in value before the ink had even dried on its Altura Takeover.
So we are clearly at only the beginning of the Wyckoff ' Smart Money ' piling into this Industry and unless we see a Wholesale sell off in other similar Lithium stocks , we are not going to see one in Sayona. And a drop to 14 cents would represent a loss of Value in the Sayona North American projects of around $210 million and all that at a time when it is more likely that Sayona will be putting in $210 million to produce many multiples of NPV than what it otherwise would have been achieving if it was only stuck at the theoretical $2 billion or more valued Altura if it had still been producing at these current pricing levels.
And there is also a lot more going on over there in terms of ' linkages ' and ' commonalities ' of different battery minerals operations as well as the integration of the potential downstream anode and battery components developers like Novonix and Nouveau Monde Graphite etc etc..... That as a comparison isn't happening here in Australia.
And so the ' Wyckoff ' money will come in absolute bucket loads for these projects and from these ' Super Charged ' stock markets and investing communities.
And if you don't think that is going to happen , then best you try and find another Investment where you think it will.
(20min delay)