Executive SummaryPiedmont Lithium (NYSE/ASX PLL)is trading more than 20% below the $70 price at which it raised $123M at the end of March, during which time:
- PLL's flagship Carolina Lithium Project has increased its resource by 40%, planned lithium hydroxide production by 34% (to 30kta) and overall project NPV by 80% (to $1.9B);
- PLL & JV partner Sayona acquired North American Lithium for a 75% discount to $400M sunk cost;
- PLL secured a path to 50% control of Iron Ridge Resources' portfolio of high-grade spodumene projects in Ghana;
- Spodumene & lithium chemical prices have risen 2-4X+;
- PLL's peers have appreciated between 39% and 386%
The implied look-through valuation of PLL's Carolina Lithium Project is just US$244m, an 87% discount to USD1.9B NPV and the lowest it's been in the past 12 months. PLL is in constructive dialogue with state and local officials in North Carolina. A Gaston County ordinance update released on September 28 outlines a framework for lithium mining and chemical processing which, in my observation, is supportive of PLL's ambitions to become a meaningful supplier for North America's EV battery demand.
Upon securing outstanding permits, an EV/NPV ratio of 0.4x-0.8x for the planned 30,000kta Carolina Lithium Project should be possible, which would equate to a share price range of...
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