I agree and disagree with you assertions of the 14.0 cent occurring ' regardless of news ' .....or FA.
I agree because 14.0 -14.5 was a pivotal prior support and resistance from around mid- August until the stock price broke higher and got traded sideways after the close of the previous SPP on 25th August. I also agree because the Whyckoff insiders new this and also new of their future 'Quebec Consolidation ' plans via what would have had to been pre - Moblan discussions after the close of the NAL acquisition on 31st August.
I disagree with your notion that the price of 14.0 would have been hit regardless of FA news being released because they ( the Wyckoff Composite minds of the market - ie including the BOD ) new the Moblan was on the horizon and could have easily released news of some kind ( as plenty in the pipeline ) prior to Moblan but rather were content with the market status quo when it was trading sideways and contained at the next level of 17.5 - 18.50 pending the ' in confidence news ' they knew would be coming .
And you , me nor the ASX can ever really prove what the market is thinking about or even what news Management may be reviewing and studying over in a ' commercial ' sense before it chooses to release it. And A2M and the SGH class actions regards release of guidance and numbers seems to be the exception to this more than the norm. Where was the ASX or ASIC at exactly the time when the precipitated fall of their SP occured. So they need to be careful YES , but the market is ultimately the force which ascribes ' valuation ' or not ......even on news.
And so I would purport that the Market and the omnipotent players who control it wanted this situation to play out given the previous discount on the SPP versus the now slightly less discount being applied to this new Moblan rights issue raising. So they didn't want the SP to get away too much from the previous market valuations of 17.5 - 18.5.
Remember the market controls the ' Narrative ' and so controls the direction of the SP through this narrative , momentum ......and they make decisions re: capital raising's and its own surrounding narrative on the basis of where they want the supports and resistance to reflect. And this is a classic example of where TA meets and converges with FA.
And remember that the Sayona SP ran up on ' NO NEWS ' ......or did it ? Wyckoff would suggest it there actually was ......and this was expressed as the 'a ggregate ' expectation of the Market omnipotent players who are setting the narrative and setting the agenda. And I don't mean HYPE as some would suggest , because if it was HYPE , the 14.0 cent level would be meaningless as well ......remembering it ran from 7's to 14.0 ....or 100% .....so it had to be about something right ? Some valuations right ? Because the reason wasn't TA . So the TA came into play AFTER , and which is why Management decided to price and play this raise in exactly the manner they and the market wanted it.
So if they and ' The Market ' wanted it to have gone higher through news and narrative , it would have let it go higher. And this is largely why it traded in that tight band of 17.5 - 18.5 and was held in this band regardless of the overall ' Negative ' September ' broader downtrend global indices as well as the slight downturn in lithium industry market sentiments ( ie market within a market ). So this is ALL narrative as well. All those broader issues happening behind the scenes which couldn't effectively pull down the Sayona SP until the new raising which was already pre-determined and already decided as to what price and discount it was going to be and moreover the market wanted it to be.
So in effect Sayona ' Bucked ' these overall market trends by trading in a valuation band where the Market was content to keep there.
So I disagree that favorable FA would have resulted in exactly the same outcome as they ( and the market ) will obviously decide the appropriate time that this favorable and expected FA will be released and moreover priced in. And this is why you often have this apparent dichotomy in Investors disbelief or shock as to why an SP hasn't moved on release of Company news. And that is because the market has already factored it in earlier.
And in my opinion this ' Extra ' news which is pending whether it is being reviewed by management pending release or whether they knew that any further news would likely come after Moblan , are the reasons why it would never have been released on top of the already basis for the raise being the Moblan acquisition.
So it's a complicated and intertwining Market thesis , but essentially there is no surprise to me that 14.0 - 14.5 would be support , because I said so myself in earlier posts.
Can it be moved from their on further FA news - Absolutely ..because it moved off there on ZERO news ..... is there reasons for it being priced there - Absolutely.
So it's not a revelation or a ' ground breaking ' idea to expect this in my opinion.
(20min delay)