General Discussion Topics, page-263

To me Tesla buying off-take from PLL starting in 2023 and continuing to 2028, with possible extension to 2033 tells me that their clay project is not coming online any time soon and during the battery day presentation they were focused on 2030. PLL is just the beginning of the companies they will be buying off-take from. Because PLL is a hard rock mine not a brine mine, they are signaling (to me) that they will be using hydroxide not carbonate for their cells. Now how many other hard rock mines are within a 24 transport time from giga-nevada or giga-ausin????? I am of course assuming Sayona is successful with NAL bid.

Here is screen grab of the 2030 project of 10 TWH for transportation needed.


Here is a screen grab for ESS 10 TWH needed.



So in total they are talking 20 TWH of batteries.

In the days leading up to battery day they spoke of buying more cells from CATL, LG, and Panasonic not fewer, this would mean all 3 of these companies will need to source more lithium as well.

In order to meet their very aggressive goal they will need to produce the equivalent of 135 giga-factories the size of the one in Nevada


for the entire year this year they produced .12 TWH.

In order to reach their goal by 2030 they will need a crazy amount of lithium
Their clay project will not even come online til 2023 at the earliest and even at that they would have to invent a scale-able lithium extraction technology that has never been used before and implement it with enough time to be meaningful by 2030 ... I am not saying that it is impossible because I have seen some amazing feats from Tesla, but they also have a history of thinking they can achieve tasks on a timeline that is not possible plus they are already hedging their bets by the addition of PLL spod.

Lastly, Battery density is very important to Tesla. The best battery density comes when using high nickle and hydroxide As far as I can tell the Thacker Pass clay mine will be producing carbonate not hydroxide which seems a bit counter-intuitive.

I will keep refining my thought as usual but for now I think Tesla will need to lean on local hard rock mines to be able to produce its own battery cells on premise.