Yeah Split ....and the numbers and upside with respect to Sayona are ALMOST incomprehensible and mind blowing.
And you only have to look at the Economic sensitivity analysis which was done on JUST Authier spodumene. where you can see in the NPV prices sensitivities that a move of around 10% adds almost $100 million onto the NPV valuation of JUST Authier. So that's a $Billion Dollars right there just on account of the rough ' doubling ' of the price of 6% spodumene.
And that would appear conservative if you look at their ( Sayona's ) DFS 2 forward price expectations at that time as compared to what it could be in just a couple of months time. So it could be as high as $1.5 billion JUST for Authier never mind the same sorts of figures for NAL ........and a similar sort of figure again for the further down the track Moblan.......without even consider Tansim or the net Capex savings across BOTH Authier and the NAL operations. So there's potentially $3 billion to $ 4.5 billion just on account of the changing price of Spodumene.
It gets considerably better though when you look back to the early 2017 scoping study by Sayona in regards to the downstream conversion of again JUST the Authier Project. So if these early figures were even remotely correct , you would have another $ Billion to $ Billion and a Half in NPV at JUST Authier , perhaps 2 to 3 $Billion for conversion of NAL spodumene , and a further perhaps 1 to 1.5 $Billion for the conversion of Moblan's 6% spodumene. So there is another potential 4 to 6 $ Billion in additional NPV for conversion to Carbonate or Hydroxides at current prices which are at least double that of the ones used in Sayona's earlier 2017 scoping studies.
And I don't reckon you can argue with these numbers because they are ' FACTUAL ' , and the economic studies and sensitivities show and prove that they are. ( see below )
So we are only at $1 billion and could potentially be easily worth between $ 7 billion and over $10 billion or 10 times from where we are sitting right now. And you only have to ask yourself why are all these other Lithium stocks worth many multiples of their current earnings from production to see that it's possible.
One small step at a time as Brett has stated , but you can almost see what the next GIANT leap forward is going to be , and that is the confirmation of where , when , and how much it will cost for us to join in the ' down steam ' Bonanza ' windfall . And even if we don't , the spodumene based on the previous sensitivities as against current expected price is at least worth another $2 billion to NPV from where we are now.
Easily !!.......
(20min delay)