Trying to have an enjoyable weekend folks without HC . There's been a few things ' pizzing ' me off though. So I'll air them out in part through this post.
Anyway , here's what I have to say about the ' Nord Du Quebec ' potential HUB and which expands a bit further on what I had said previously in regards the ' Intentions ' of the Moblan acquisition and the ' FIRST right ' ....or even SECOND right of refusal by LRC and I.Q for Moblan from Guo Ao.
After watching that RF Equity clip TWICE , I make the following observations.
On a professional level , there is obviously a lot that can be extracted and interpreted by that recent RK equity mines and money video with Keith Phillips which I will discuss in this post.
However, on a personal level and from my own perspective and point of view , I think he is smug , presumptuous , and almost arrogant in many ways and he should NOT be speaking on strategic matters of interest of Sayona and Sayona's timetable when he seemingly can't even get his own house in order , or his own market disclosures to his own shareholders . And especially so when he ( Piedmont ) are only the ' Minority ' shareholder in this Quebec Venture. So I get that they are our major shareholder and have a BOD seat at our boardroom table - But there is definitely a clear conflict of interest here when we are hearing about our Company's plans and development from this single shareholder and BOD member and not from the ASX and the people who actually are running this company. ie Brett Lynch.
His his trying to ' talk up ' his share price in the interview as being undervalued and of interest from predators who would certainly be interested in their business model is quite ridiculous, and almost to the point of humorous given they have virtually got ' Nada ' to speak of at this particular point in time. He even says we have arguably the single most advanced Lithium producing plant project in North America at the present moment.
And so , it is for these sorts of comments which were displayed throughout that entire interview that I have personally taken a strong ' dislike ' to this man.
And you can say that ' you're friends ' and speak of the likelihood of doing something ' together in Quebec regarding Hydroxide conversion ' is possible ' down the track. But it is even somewhat of a redundant comment given that the NAL acquisition itself requires this to happen from year 6. I mean does he think that by doing something himself in Quebec and which rules out Sayona in Quebec somehow exonerates him from his 25% liability to this agreement with Quebec simply on the basis that he is using spodumene produced from the NAL operations.
So there is a lot of posturing going on here with respect to the production of Lithium Hydroxides in North America and specifically in this interview with the mentioning of ' Separate ' Quebec plans.
And I feel a lot of this posturing comes from the ' Technical ' side , and the resulting environmental ' footprint ' of each of their respective proposals being put up here.
And so it will be these ' Differentiation's ' that will in my view be the deciding factor as to who Sayona ends up partnering with and / or whether they end up going it alone or inevitably with Piedmont.
And I've already spoke of some of my thoughts in respects to the preemptive move on Moblan and how this could suggest or elude to a ' tie-up ' with Nemaska , or indeed if it was to ' Balance ' out the spread of risk and future downstream supply of spodumene for a ' separate ' Hydroxide facility. In other words I.Q favored Sayona for acquiring Moblan instead of say Nemaska ( who would have been the more logical fit ) because it ultimately spreads the risk of ' Capital ' and perhaps even downstream for a 2nd proposed Hydroxide plant. So he who controls the supply of readily available quality spod controls the ultimate flow of downstream outputs. And its not as if Nemaska even needs Moblan's spod , as it had its own LOM resources calculated at 28 years or something.
The other thing about the ' Technology ' and this apparent cloak and dagger posturing of who is pursuing what Hydroxide strategy and with Whom comes down to the technological process. So while Piedmont is obviously pursuing its own ' low cost ' and environmental ' low carbon footprint ' process with Metso Outotecs technology , Sayona appears to have chosen the ' Nitric Acid ' recycled closed technology provided by Integrated Carbon Sequestration Pty Ltd ( ICS ) and CSIRO.
But people often forget that Nemaska holds extensive amounts of IP in both Canada and the US in terms of it ' electrolysis ' membrane Hydroxide conversion patents......which eliminate the need for large quantities of Soda Ash that Phillps speaks of in his interview with regards to their own adopted processes. And just on a comparative basis , Nemaska's original DFS had forecast operating costs of around US$2,154 per tonne FOB their previous Shawinigan Quebec proposed plant verses Piedmont's lithium hydroxide cash costs of US$3,716 per tonne. So there is a considerable ' advantage ' in using Nemaska's Hydroxide conversion intellectual property.
So unless Piedmont is going to tie-up with the Pallinghurst group in a Hydroxide JV , I find it unlikely that Piedmont would want to use Nemaska's Hydroxide I.P when it has its own which it is supporting in North Carolina
Remember also that Livent who is a Partner with Pallinghurst and Quebec in the Nemaska projects is ALSO a lithium provider to Tesla. So there are clear competing interests or JOINT interest here with any Piedmont Hydroxide tie ups depending on how you want to look at it. Interesting that Livent and Piedmont's share prices have been moving more or less in sync in both the last 5 days with their respective 11 and 8 percent increases , as well as in the month of October with their 19 and 15 percent respective increases. Even Albemarle was only up 6.63 % and 14.43 % in the same time frame ....and that's after announcing the restart of the Wodgina JV on the 25th October or exactly 5 trading days ago.
So ALL of this is not to say that Sayona could still partake in a combined Sayona / Nemaska ' Northern James Bay lithium HUB ' ....but they are going to need a BIGGER facility than just their originally planned nameplate capacity Hydromet plant of 28,000 t / yr .
Interesting that Phillips doesn't actually speak of ' Becancour ' per se , but just mentions a plant ' Somewhere on the St Lawrence Seaway ' .......which leaves the whole discussion up fro conjecture and speculations that it could actually be elsewhere.
So apart from this interview and other recent random media remarks , I was trying to find out where specifically Piedmont had mentioned to its ' Shareholders ' of it's potential ' separate ' Hydroxide investing strategy in Quebec. And you can go back to virtually 2 articles - both PUT out by Pro Active on the 30th and 31st of August where they talk about the ' Rapid ' and ' Amenable ' restart to the NAL operations and in the same breath they state they are " evaluating a variety of options for production of lithium hydroxide in Quebec , and will update the market further as our plans crystallize " The article further states that the partners have commenced studies for the manufacturing of lithium chemicals in Quebec, which would position the Province to become an important lithium hydroxide production centre given its abundance of mineral resources , low cost sustainable hyroelectric power , location to US & European electric vehicles markets , and pro electrification stance by the Provinces leaders.
So they state again in the article that an evaluation of downstream processing at NAL is progressing ....as per the NAL acquisition agreement.
What I also find intriguing from those late August articles is that Brett was specifically quoted as stating that NAL " would make it the centre of our Abitibi lithium HUB " So my point with this statement here is why would you specifically make mention of ' our Abitibi lithium HUB ' if you didn't already know you had designs on ' Another HUB ' ......you would just say The ' Abitibi lithium HUB. So the quoted statement implies in my mind that he ( Lynch ) knew there was going to be another lithium HUB further up in the Nord Du Quebec , and that would also form part of Sayon'a basket of ' Lithium HUBs ' .
Remember that that statement was only 1 month prior to the actual Moblan transaction coming together...... So they KNEW ......and it was done for a reasons of Joint co-operation and / or spreading of the risks.
And so putting this this latest interview with Phillips and Piedmont to one side for a moment , we don't have to go all that far back to the podcast interview with Nouveau's Chairman and Pallinghurst Managing partner and co-founder Arne Frandsen.
In that interview , we know that Frandsen spoke of Becancour and specifically the location C$9 billion Canadian chemicals giant Olin Corporation. However , many may not have realized that back in January 2021 Nouveau advised of their progress at their Phase 1 purification operation which was actually occurring at ' Olin Corporation 's ' facility.....and where Nouveay stated that " Olin's move-in ready space had proven advantageous in their acceleration and construction times."
They also advised in their Jan 2021 announcement their completion of their ' strategic ' acquisition of a 200,000 metre square land parcel for their phase 2 . expansions which was ALSO acquired in the Becancour Industrial Park. So that's around 20 hectares in round numbers - but as you can see by the interactive available land parcels that there was effectively only one block equal to 19.9 hectares in that Industrial Park , and which is situated towards the eastern end of the park which is also the closest one to Olin's facility located roughly 3.2 kilometres away.
So I reckon they purchased lot 17 as highlighted......as against what Nemaska had advised in June of this year of their ' OPTION ' over a 500,000 sq metre plot of land in the same Industrial Park .
And you can see that there is only one lot size numbered which has a near 50 hectare allotment which is No.9 at 56 hectares . However when you examine closely some of the other sized lots at 6 hectares and others you can then see that the ' Unnumbered ' lot at the Western end of the Industrial park and which is circled in red more or less fits the rough size of 50 hectares ( 500,000 sq metres ) .....and probably arguably the BEST located site to the actual port facilities and overall road accesses.
So you can see by all these ' Commonalities ' , ' Differences ' , and statments made that more than likely there will either be another ' Separate ' Becancour Hydroxide facility or even another one somewhere on the ' St. Lawrence Seaway ' ......or indeed a yet to be ' upgraded ' super facility at Becancour which perhaps negates Nemaska's take up of its well positioned 500,000 sq metre ' Option ' property at Becancour. And it seems there is still at least one larger block of over 100 hectares still left in the Industrial Estate.
Whatever the case , the 28,000 tonne Nemaska proposed Hydromet conversion plant won't nearly be enough to process even Sayona's entire pre-expanded ' production....so something BIG has to happen fairly shortly I would think - otherwise the market begins to become inherently ' fragmented ' and potentially less efficient and cost effective that it could otherwise be.
And the more time that elapses , the more likely that severe bottlenecks in Hydroxide supply will occur at exactly the wrong time from the market demand side of the markets.
The last point of interest I would make of the RK Equity interview with Phillips is when he highlights the disconnect in market perceived valuation of Iron Ridge Resources. So while he states that the project is likely to have upside in the JORC tonnages to over 20 MT ( same as Authier ) , and with the grades being good ( like Moblan ) , it currently is only sitting around 14 MT ( similar to Moblan ) ......and yet he states that if it were independently listing on the ASX as a lithium Company and not just the AIM markets , it would be valued at double , triple , or even quadruple its current value. Here's the thing though and what I find interesting with this comment is that while he acknowledges that Moblan has potential upside in discovery as well as it's existing good grades , he fails to draw the similarities to what he would ascribe a value to the very similar Iron Ridge existing resources.....and based on his own multiples of anywhere from A$400 , A$600 , or even A$800 million if it were ' separately ' listed on the ASX. So that should at least put Moblan on similar projected valuations in my opinion........
So again , I feel that while he endeavors to ' talk up ' his the Iron Ridge lithium project , he tends to talks down the significance of Moblan for some reason. And I find this not only unusual , but also unethical and unprofessional given he is BOTH a related party BOD member as well as significant shareholder in Sayona.......
(20min delay)