My view is in the most recent study out by PLL they still have a listed CAPEX of $838m USD or $1.132 Billinon AUD. This cash requirement was for a $30,000 tpy hydroxide plant and and a 250,000 tpy concentrator (again in USD). The fact that Keith is now mentioning 60,000 train in N. Carolina and another 60,000 tpa train in Quebec makes little to no sense. The CAPEX needed for this would be 4x what the scoping study mentions. Even if the costs in Quebec work JV we are talking a substantial amount of CAPEX.
I don't know how long the shipping bottlenecks will continue but if they continue this will definitely have an impact on Piedmont's buildout timeline, they could see delays of 3 to 6 months on components needed and the cumulative effect could be years of delays. In this same vein of thinking I hope Sayona will build a good spare parts inventory over the next 18 months to lessen the chance of unplanned down time due to a part taking weeks or months to ship.
In order to restart NAL Carbonate plant I have been estimating between $100m and $200m in upgrade costs. I do not think Sayona will do a CR for this needed cash, so that leaves debt or a combination IQ and debt. In either case I believe the ROI will be rather quick (6 months or less) considering $30,000 to $40,000 per ton carbonate prices are being flashed around in the next 6 months.
I understand
@Silent-Bubbles outrage towards Keith, however I do not quite share the same opinion. Time will tell if he is a friend of Sayona or a snake in the grass, but for now I am holding off on passing harsh judgements. One of the comments that I do feel strongly about is the number of times I personally hear news on Sayona from Sources other than Sayona (Keith in particular). I think the flow of news about our company should definitely be controlled and come from official company announcements instead of being rumors and piecemeal from other sources. The company may be at a point where they want to let the studies guide them to the correct decision and I think that is prudent, allowing others to speak on your behalf is not.
One last parting thought with respect to Sayona / PLL. PLL will need a cash call in the next 12 months maybe a few CR's to cover what they need plus a few years of operating costs while they build. Is it possible that they would sell their share of Sayona Quebec to Livent or Pallinghurst to help offset some of the dilutive shares? This would align us more with Nemaska and hydroxide production. PLL's 25% holding is a 2-edge sword for them, on the one hand they profit when we hit production, but in the mean time they are liable for 25% of our costs. So if Sayona opts to restart the Carbonate plant and my estimated upgrade costs are correct this could cost Piedmont $25m to $50m. This would be nearly 1/3 of the cash on hand ($142m at the end of June 2021) at Piedmont.
(20min delay)