SYA 3.03% 3.4¢ sayona mining limited

General Discussion Topics, page-28738

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    He mentions 24,000 shareholders . And increase of 3,958 new shares , and more than likely as a result of this latest capital raising.

    Remembering that as at 10 September there were 20,042 across a total of 6,123,705,535 outstanding shares of which 2,740,358,227 were from the Top 20. That leaves at total of 3,383,347,308 being outside the Top 20 across 20,022 holders for an average holding balance of 168,981. However if you deduct the 531 of quoted ' unmarketable ' parcels which would included 87 from the just over 100,000 category , you would have an average holding balance of 173,585 shares.

    So we now have 6,987,020,481 new shares across 24,000 shareholders for an average of around 291,125 or 67% increase in ' average ' parcel holding size from only 1 month ago.

    So the raise and interest from the raise has been very much ' Targeted ' around this Moblan deal. Begs the question again though as to WHY the SP has so magically hovered around the 15.5 cent level for much of this time. Because there is definitely evidence of accumulation from just those numbers alone.

    And just to compare similar large size numbers - BHP had a combined 5,062,323,190 shares across its combine 556,725 shareholders for an average holding balance of only 9,093 ( inclusive of Top 40 ) , and only 3,667 average balance when you take out BOTH the Top 20 of the Australian list and the PLC list. BHP had not ' Unmarketable ' parcels from what I could see in their results.

    FMG had 122,522 total shareholders LESS 3,276 ' unmarketable ' parcels by comparison across its 3,079,097,734 TOTAL shares with their Top 20 holding 86.02% of the register leaving only 430,458,863 shares across it's ' marketable ' outside Top 20 holders of 119,226 ....for an average holding balance of only 3,610 per holder.

    So having similar average holding balance comparisons between BHP and FMG tells me that even if you were to do a 50 to 1 consolidation for Sayona Mining's register , you'd still have an average holding balance higher than either of BHP & FMG at roughly 5,823 with an equivalent share price of around $8 bucks per share.

    So you can see from looking at it in this way that the Sayona SP has a fair ways of ' Growth ' yet to travel before it needs to pull the trigger on a consolidation.

    In other words.......ideally you want to strive towards a ' post consolidation ' situation whereby you get your Share Price high , you Top 20 holding balance HIGH , and your average holding balance outside the Top 20 lower. This way you actually limit or reduce the volatility on your Share Price.

    And this is NOT the situation we have currently going on with Sayona whereby Investors are still INCREASING their average holding balances despite the SP being relatively ' static ' . Doing a 1 for 10 or 15 consolidation right now would result in an average holding balance of between 29,112 and 19,408 with an SP of only $1.60 and $2.40 .....so way to high an average holding balance which could still move the SP downwards or upwards 10% on any given day.

    That's why I don't reckon they will do this anytime soon or at least until ALL necessary rounds of capital raising's are complete and which will no doubt result in the average balances being lower by definition if the cap raises are at higher levels and top 20 are higher as well as the proposed consolidation ratio.

    And if you look into the Investing in projects ' Mandate ' of BOTH resources Quebec and Investment Quebec you will see that it is actually one of their requirements that the Project has completed ALL its rounds of finance BEFORE it usually contemplates it's own investment in the said projects. Now whether this point will require Sayona to undertake a consolidation earlier than expected is another question......but in my mind shouldn't really matter even if funding from I.Q or Resource Quebec where to be by way of ' equity stakes '

 
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