Its an interesting point you raise here mate. Because it can have the opposite effect on the SP if Sayona is the ' Acquirer ' too right . And so it's equally interesting to contrast the subtle differences in what Phillips mentioned as being the welcomed Industry M&A activity in his previous mines and money interview with Hooper.
So on the one had you have the opportunistic and cheaper entry points like Piedmont positioned itself on the Quebec lithium Industry ' Consolidation ' play which was done through Sayona Quebec. So in this instance you can see that Phillips prefers a more minor participating ' partnership ' approach whereby they tip in some upfront equity capital as well as some ongoing contributing equity in line with their percentage stake and towards Opex and Capex . Very subtle and relatively risk free approach.
He then does the same with Iron Ridge with their upfront commitment to project CAPEX as well as offtake ' security ' to the project.
But he then decides to steer clear for some reason in joining the more ambitious corporate activity of Sayona in making a grab for the 60% and controlling stake in the Moblan ' look alike ' project.
And so this ALL contrasts quite differently to Sayona's approach thus far which has again been more direct with the Moblan deal . But even with the NAL BID which for a long time was just Sayona at the front of the BID . And obviously this deal being a corporate play on a company ' in administration ' came with its own hidden benefits of significantly written down assets , potential upside in the resource tonnage and quality as well as having one of its former Creditors being the Government of Quebec agreeing for part settlement in retaining a $20 million continued exposure in preferred equity.
Even with Tansim , Sayona has not been backward in coming forward in securing virtually ALL the available mineral prospective ground in this Area. Which is almost the same as saying the ALL the available land surrounding the NAL operations and the la corne behemoth belonged to one singular mining entity
So ALL of these type moves by Piedmont can be seen to be more conservative while the activities of Sayona are arguably a little bit more assertive in their ' Aim High ' type approach and to the ' Controlling ' interests aspects in ALL these projects.
And of course these deals with Piedmont and Sayona contrast again to those which we see happening with the likes of Millennial Lithium , NEO Lithium recent takeover by China's Zijin Mining Group, or even Ganfeng's earlier move in controlling Bacanora Lithium's Mexican Sonora lithium project. All relatively more aggressive moves for absolute controlling interest.
The Millennial deal particularly highlights more the aggressive M&A posturings by the Chinese - especially after an earlier deal of the recent Zijin play for NEO which saw Gangfeng grabbed the controlling 51% of the Lithium Triangle's neighboring Cauchari-Olaroz Project with Lithium Americas holding the minority 49% interest.
So with ALL these 100% , 51% and 49% controlling interest M&A plays going on ....particularly in the brine space , it seems only a matter of time before we see some additional ' tie-ups ' in BOTH the Ontario and Quebec hard rock space.
And I feel as though Sayona is not all that ' Shy ' about making such moves given it's obvious distinctive differences to that of the more subtle Piedmont.
Will we see them talking more with potential other HUB partners to combine forces and fast track further strong spodumene showings. My guess is the answer is a definite YES so long as the Script price stays strong and is thereabouts on the most recent Moblan deal. Perhaps this is why the Market is holding back for the present moment . A bit of a wait and see what they do next.
And you couldn't blame the market for thinking this way given that Moblan at least on the surface looks as though it was out of ' left field ' . Apart from the fact that we are virtually valued at the same market cap that roughly 1 month before the Market even became aware of the Moblan acquisition.
So I guess what I would like to know by what Lynch had stated in that last interview ....is that was Moblan simply a ' Trophy ' play because they had liked the project earlier and so just dusted off their previous file and thought - ' Hey ' we can do it now because our script is so strong , and we can now pay more than the US $60 million we couldn't do back in 2017.
There does seem a bit of discrepancy in what Lynch might have been saying though - and that is that the Authier project was purchased by Sayona off Glen Eagle back in July 2016 ....which was 15 months before Moblan was even sold to Guo Ao .
So I hardly think that Moblan was on the blocks for a minimum of 15 months and perhaps even up to 18 months if you look at when Sayona first started running its DD over Glen Eagle's Authier project.
So I'm really hoping it's not JUST a ' Because we Can ' emotive purchase from the hip for the Moblan project and that there is actually at least more substance to even the shorter term strategy of this potential Northern HUB. Because if it takes Moblan the same time to go from 14 MT to over 20 MT as it did with the Authier project going from just over 9 MT to 20.94 MT , then we might be waiting a fair ole time before we see anything material developing from this so called Northern HUB .
And given the fact that Sayona has paid almost 27 times the figure they paid for Authier , it does make you wonder what the underlying ' deal logic ' is here. And I don't see other peer lithium projects having gone up 27 times in the same time period. At least not projects which still require significant proving up. So there has to be something more to it in my opinion.
So what is the ' Deal ' logic here for Moblan and the Strategies of Lynch going forward. I get that it is one of a handful of more advanced Quebec lithium projects, but is it a ' World Class ' project .......maybe. At the same time though , it hasn't had a thing done to it since July 2019 ......not even any drilling.....
So it seems to me that the market still wants to know the answer to some of these questions as well.
(20min delay)
