Not surprised that things have started to move up from these rather subdued levels. An we can take a lot of the guesswork out of the speculation as has been said by simply extrapolating the relationships to the current years economic events , and then reason from there how the Mining Industry together with the Environmental and renewable energy Initiative including those surrounding the electrification of the Quebec and Canadian economy can sectors can in fact deliver the outcomes necessary.
And one only has to revisit some of the wording and figures provided in Investment Quebec's Annual Report back in September to see where I am coming from on these points as follows :-
Montreal, September 29, 2020 - Investissement Québec today released its annual report of activities and sustainable development for the 2019-2020 period, covering the period from 1 st April 2019 to 31 March 2020, which presents the balance sheet 'a year of success, change and turnaround.
Driven by the economic dynamism, the year was very busy as the Investissement Québec team prepared to be given an expanded mandate by the Government of Quebec.However, barely a few weeks before the end of the fiscal year, an unprecedented crisis erupted and forced Investissement Québec to step up to the front toprotect Québec businesses and jobs.
And so by looking at some of actual numbers and results , we can extrapolate and tie back some fairly obvious levels of support to the validity of the Authier / NAL proposals :-
Solid results of interventions in the economy
During this fiscal year, the Crown corporation authorized total financing of $ 2.4 billion, by combining financial assistance from its own funds from Investissement Québec, the Economic Development Fund (FDE) and the Natural resources and energy capital (CRNE). Each dollar of funding granted by Investissement Québec during the year contributed to an investment of $ 4.18 in the Québec economy.
Here are some highlights of the 2019-2020 financial year:
- Investissement Québec has allocated more than $ 1.5 billion of its equity in projects worth a total of nearly $ 6.4 billion and contributing to the creation or safeguard of more than 10,000 jobs.
- The exploration activities carried out this year and in previous years helped to materialize, in 2019-2020, 86 projects of foreign companies worth $ 2.9 billion, surpassing the set target. These projects are expected to create or maintain more than 8,000 jobs.
So looking at these last highlighted project / job numbers reported in their ( IQ's ) annual report - and by making simple calculations and measurements , we can then make observations of the likelihood that the NAL / Arthier - Tansim - Lac Simard ' Hub ' proposition will indeed make the cut if you like in regards to potential funding and / or the necessary level of attention from IQ when the time comes.
So if for example we divided the $2.9 Billion by the 86 projects we arrive at an average of C$33.7 million per project per investment which could easily be seen to be applicable to a contribution multiple coming from IQ.
Similarly if we take the aggregate of 8,000 of created jobs across these 86 projects we get an average project with an average of 93 employees which of course is well under the 140 - 250 jobs which the combined NAL / Authier would be either created or saved with encouragement and support from IQ for this project and this region.
I note also the difference in their $1.5 Billion in ' Equity ' injected into projects with an overall effect of 10,000 jobs as against the 8,000 they report to have been a direct result from ' Foreign ' projects. And this is a significant ratio because it would indicate that 80% of ALL jobs created by IQ were in fact in some way tied to or leveraged by ' Foreign ' companies like SYA with only 2,000 being derived organically from their own home grown projects. And why wouldn't you do it this way - because by doing this way you tap into the Foreign Investment which can then be ' COMBINED ' with your own financial investment inputs.
So again I would argue this should augur well for Sayona as they have stood by Quebec and these job creating projects when they could have arguably walked away. But they ( Quebecers ) can obviously see by now that the Aussie's don't do that. They don't cut and run just because things get tough. So I would ask the question again of why would IQ abandon SYA at this 11th hour and in the whole scheme of things when Sayona is obviously prepared and can definitely make a contribution to an overall stronger and more resilient Quebec Economy. Especially in what would be considered a fairly vulnerable regional community during these current pandemic effected times.
So my opinion is that the NAL / SYA ' Hub ' is definitely a viable and significant option where ONE cannot be traded off at the expense of the other ....with the only difficulty being how IQ will accept the equity structure if at all. And i say if at all because of the ' New Nemaska ' formation whereby they specifically requested the vehicle be disbanded from the equity exchange and reporting responsibilities governed by the Canadian Securities exchange.
So in the absence of this sort of set up , does Sayona become the defacto Management Operator with it's Authier / Tansim Spod ....but with NO direct equity link to the NAL operation but for the fact of a production ' Distribution ' from IQ for the finished product from it's ( Authier's ) blended Spod inputs.
So Sayona's Management may in fact have a seat on the IQ Bod as the Defacto Manager's or consultants to the operation - and by doing this , we obviously save the costs associated with building and owning our own Concentrator . But the bottom line is that IQ will never allow a ' Core ' mining resource and asset worth C$400 - $500 million be subject to the whims and control of the Australian Stock Exchange and its fickle shareholders..
Having said that , any deal such as this would still have to be worth at least double that of the current market capitalization - so $25 - $40 million or between 2.2 cents and 2.7 cents.
And I believe the Investment market and investors are beginning to realize these obvious ' Givens ' when it comes to what lies ahead for SYA in Quebec......
(20min delay)