Actually , and again my whole price target thesis around the 23.0 cents by the 23rd was particularly more loosely based on the nostalgic effect of actually landing on the 23rd . As well as that , my figures and working which back the thesis up in the first place were all based around 22.75 cent ......so in actual fact , it got to a high of 22.0 on the 23rd so I reckon I was even a little bit closer based on that....and happy to be out that sort of margin.
So now , I'm extremely Glad that the 22.25 - 22.75 cents has now really started to firm as a key support and not so much the target now. Hence the reason I now move on toward my next broader target prices. Besides 22.75 cents by 23rd March given the significance of Warnie doesn't quite have the same ring to it does it. Or maybe I should have said 23.0 cents by the 24th which was my birthday ( 23rd in Northern Hemisphere where it was 24th here in Aus ) . So on that basis , I was spot on correct .
But moving on now - If we get 39.0 or 40.0 by Easter ....whether that's Easter Thursday or Easter Tuesday following , I would be more than happy that my May /June 2021 price projection was hit within only a margin of a couple of weeks over 11 months.
Like I said before to ' Tryhardburn ' , it's not so much about whether your price target is reasonable or not reasonable , or whether someone agrees with the validity of how it is arrived at or not ......Because , at the end of the day , the only thing that matters the most is the journey of how you got there , and the analysis which gets you to that point over that 12 months no matter what else ends up happening along the way.
And that's when you know you've done your homework , and run the numbers correctly. So whether you're out a day , a week , or a month from a calculation and calculus of assumptions done 12 months earlier , the answer is still the same , and you are still validated as being correct.
And I guess I stand by predictions as anyone else would on there's.
But the beauty about Sayona , is that those ' Steps ' in the share price appreciation as the other poster has reference will be ' backfilled ' in off the back of Sayona's ' Growth ' in resource , acquisitions , expansions and exploration. So you have to keep all that in mind when you're calculating and making your estimates because that is where a lot of the ' exponential ' immediate growth is going to come from.
Production is obviously great and so is moving towards chemicals conversion - But asset recognition and ' Tonnage ' and resources in this market are also KEY to the year on year ealy CAGR rates from this point.
So if we get to the 40 cents by Easter ( previously predicted as March 2022 ) , that's effectively a growth in SP expansion of 258% from a 2021 and Moblan base of say 15.5 cents , a 100% to 87.5% return on the next 12 months should we hit between 75.0 and 80.0 cents per share , and a year 3 return of between 43.75% and 72.0% depending on whether we hit 75.0 or 80.0 cents in year 2 ( next year ) and $1.15 or $1.29 by Mar / Apr 2024.
So I think that these ' Growth ' rates are definitely reasonable , and am happy to wear these figures by keeping this post on file for when and if it plays out this way.
(20min delay)