SYA 3.03% 3.4¢ sayona mining limited

I think you really do now have to look towards the action and...

  1. 12,830 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 15644
    I think you really do now have to look towards the action and value of the OC's as a forward looking indicator or proxy for the value of the Company.

    And I say this because for those who perhaps have missed out or were in two minds as to whether to take up their 3.2 cent rights. Either you think that 16.67% of the Company is only worth 3.2 cents ie after the offer the Company's market capitalization will be worth a value of $ will be worth a value of $143, 011,428 with its 4,469,107,131 shares on issue . Or you believe right now by Buying the 2.0 cent OC's that by the end of April in 2023 , the Company will be worth potentially $208,097,821 with its fully diluted 4,839,484,207 shares on issue .....or if you are a 3.0 cent unlisted Options Holders you believe by July 23 2022 , the Company will be worth approximately $213,052,116 assuming the unlisted 3.0 cents options would trade at a similar 2.3 cent current market value or par with the OC's ( which they obviously would not if they had a market ).

    And therein lies the beauty of the ' Unlisted ' 3.0 cent options. Because there is no market for them in the official sense of the meaning , for those holders who do actually own a portion of these 107,216,182 remaining options , they can only ever be worth 3.0 cents for them to be converted...... and moreover only .002 of a cent less than the current priced rights offer of 3.2 cents.

    So in either of these cases , it's seems an absolute astonishing bargain to be pricing the 2 year future of the Company via the OC 2.0 cents options currently at a 13.16% discount to the TERP pricing of the rights at 3.8 cents and only a $65,986,393 discount or a 31.28% discount to the expected Market Cap in 2 years time should ALL the OC's be converted to shares.

    And that folks is already on top of the fact that the Head stock ' TODAY ' is trading at almost a 7% discount to that of which the OC's are saying the Company will be worth in 2 years time.

    And time value aside , it seems out of sync to have on the one hand the OC's trading at what seems to be a premium to the otherwise accepted ' Theoretical Ex Rights Share Price ' ( TERP ) of only 13.16% - while on the other hand , the Heads are reflecting a 6.97% ( 7% ) discount to the OC's .....and all the while the OC's are saying the company will be worth 31.28% more in 2 years time.

    Hopefully that makes sense to you ALL . But If not , it does to me so that's all that matters. In summary , the Heads should be trading 4.28 ( 4.3 ) cents right now. And I'm not sure that 31.28% premium for Market Value over time allowing for the take up and fully diluted OC's is only worth a 7% premium to the current value of the heads at 4.0 cents.

    Market has got t completely wrong or is that confused as to the directions it is definitely NOT pricing these relationships correctly in my opinion.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add SYA (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
3.4¢
Change
0.001(3.03%)
Mkt cap ! $349.9M
Open High Low Value Volume
3.3¢ 3.4¢ 3.3¢ $381.2K 11.37M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
69 16672213 3.3¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
3.4¢ 7359997 21
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 19/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
SYA (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.