When the DOW futures were pointing up around 247 or less than 1% the VIX was in a gradual ' sloping ' free fall post yesterdays close and pointing to a 5.68% fall some 4 or 5 hours after the DOW close.
So in fact BOTH the Futures were pointing higher with the expected volatility easing off in ' Multiples of the implied DOW open at that time.
Now most pundits and experts have ALREADY pointed out that the Markets have been not just volatile .......BUT violent in their oscillating recent moves based on OBVIOUS global and economic uncertainties.
So I would argue that its NOT just important to watch and track all these indicators and measures , but equally important to absorb the commentary and narrative surrounding ALL the issues , and then making a view a certain way for any given sector or Company.
So this would include specific Industry as well as specific company news and comparative analysis.
So more important for me in reviewing the performance of Sayona would be to continue to analyse whats happening in the broader Industry, mining , and Government sectors - which would include whats happening with their ( Sayona's ) peer lithium hard rock companies.
So O.K , we can start by looking at how Sigma Lithium performed overnight. At one stage it was down another 8.6% ....but finished only 2.45% with a rebound swing of more than 6% to close at an equivalent Market Cap in Australian dollars of A$2,033 billion . So given that I don't believe the numbers would suggest that Sigma Lithium and its single ( twin ) lithium project should be valued more than Sayona's basket of lithium projects , I feel there is strong support at this similar market capitalization valuation.
Similarly , when we look to how Frontier Lithium performed , we can see it was only down another 1.51% with a favorable bounce at 5 minutes before close of point .93 of a percent , and closing at a Market Cap only 7.91% down from its ALL TIME HIGH at A$760.37 million.
And its important to stress again that Frontier's current relative JORC'd lithium resource is very similar in BOTH tonnage and grades to that of what Moblan is right this very moment without any potential ' doubling ' of resource which is very likely to occur in the next 3 or 4 months.
So even if you take 60% of the A$760.37 as simply an as at now baseline comparison , we would have Sayona's share of the Moblan project sitting at A$456.22 million .
So then even with Authier at a modest A$400 million ( premium for 100% control of this resource ) , and NAL at just $1 billion ( or HALF of Sigma's proposed project and plant which is not finished ) - We would have a very conservative sum of the parts with NOTHING ascribed to the 4 or 5 MT most likely representing a starting resource at Mallina ......as well as nothing at all for any of Sayona's Australian minerals tenements and proximity to existing mining infrastructure ....of around an absolute minimum valuation of approximately A$1,856.22 or around a half of a cent higher than were we are now.
So regardless of what you may think or suggest about Sayona's SP , there is virtually no chance that we would see 10. cents without a complete collapse in Sayona's international peers which would see Sigma give back well over a $ Billion off its current value , while Frontier would lose most if not ALL of its value knocking it back to virtually the stone age of values more representative and designated to the small cap explorer valued at under $100 million .
I think it also important to acknowledge the significance ( albeit from a small base and low volumes ) , that Jourdan Resources and one of NAL's nearest and largest land holding neighbors increased a further 10% overnight bringing its total for just the last 2 days to 35%.
So there is obviously plenty of positive and relevant ' micro ' stuff happening right in Sayona's own backyard which would be equal to any negative sentiments driven solely by the broader market measure of volatility of the VIX.
(20min delay)