SYA 0.00% 3.4¢ sayona mining limited

General Discussion Topics, page-53912

  1. 4,407 Posts.
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    There is a lot of discussion about the low price chosen to represent a sale price for spodumene. I want to stress that this is an industry way of doing it. Sayona did not do anything different than what is done in every other PFS/DFS ... here are 2 examples.

    From the Alkem DFS (December 2021)
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4368/4368584-8ba3c88dbb710e8bf80fd8d4a2c5f9ee.jpg


    From Piedmont BFS

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4368/4368586-9557a92e10f3c3311ea075c6d6a99599.jpg


    The actual issue is the projected number of tons being produced is way lower than I expected. (163,000 tpa) vs what I estimated to be roughly double that. My estimate was based on a reserve size of around 74 mt of measured and indicated. Measured and indicated normally translate into proven and probable, but for some reason they did not in this case.

    from the resource upgrade announcement
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4368/4368587-8d211f8a84d0b0b50ce4d489a868db90.jpg

    From the PFS
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4368/4368588-4a1a719995b6c9b82094e2023afda923.jpg

    On the other side of the coin we got confirmation that after 2024 we will no longer be selling spod to PLL at $900.00/t and that we will be pursuing completion of the construction of the Carbonate plant on-site at NAL.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4368/4368591-ab6c599ef7fcd207e35691be4ae77101.jpg

    So basically in 2025 we will be fully realizing market prices for our product, and that product will no longer be spodumene, it will be either Carbonate or Hydroxide which at this moment are virtually the same price.

    Using the 163,000 tpa number would allow us to produce about 20,000 tpa of Hydroxide and a hydroxide price of around $40,000 per ton would result in $800 Million in Revenue per year beginning in 2025.

    Now the company has said on numerous occasion that they will actually be producing 30,000 tpa of hydroxide at NAL (abitibi hub) which would turn into an astonishing $1.2 Billion in Revenue for 25 years.

    We do not have the PFS for Authier, and we do not have the PFS for the Hydroxide plant so those who are somehow equating the total value of Sayona to the value of one project are just plain down ramping you to take advantage.
 
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