Yeah definitely true in how the market responded yesterday.
But what the Market has so far failed to recognise is that the figures I have gone over so far in the PFS , is that it has failed to pick up on the fact that the whole NAL operation has got over the line with a near ' Doubling ' of its LOM on ONLY 33 ish percent ' blending ' albeit lower than other Li % players but from a ' Consistent ' contiguous Ore body at Authier where extraction can be sdt about in a confident , measured and orderly fashion.
And so it ( NAL ) has achieved this without any further re-classification as SPLIT has pointed out in regards movement into the ' Proven and Probable ' categories which we know will occur over time.
What's further interesting , is it the fact that it would seem that the $A costs are ' inclusive ' of haulage and other costs of around A$185 per tonne which together with the A$118 comprise the A$303 per tonne being derived from this application of consistent ore feedstock from Authier which has ultimately gone onto reduce the ' average ' LOM A$ concentrate cost for Authier's ' Notional ' REVENUE to a figure which would otherwise be around an equivalent .49 cent AUD to USD exchange rate as calculated at the very upper end of the US$900 ceiling provided in the Piedmont Offtake.
So if the Aussie currency plateau's or drops significantly as the USD strengthens ( and as we would normally see for USD denominated commodity prices ) , we have tremendous ' Sensitivity ' gearing to the AUD v USD cross rates...with the Canadian Dollar normally following the same directions as the Aussie.
On the other hand , if we see a temporary strengthening of the Aussie , we have this natural ' buffer ' of having this Authier ore extending the existing resource profile of NAL out to DOUBLE which is then reflected in the equivalent LOM average sales revenue per ton.
So effectively the pre-tax EBIT or theoretical EBITDA is around 6 times the Authier cost base at the concentrate level.
And I think that's damn good really ....especially that it is virtually ' locked ' in now for EVERYONE in the Quebec Lithium Industry to get their heads around.
Then there is the separate aspect where they make the point that the ' product ' will be converted to lithium Chemicals within 2 years. Which is what I had been saying all along that Piedmont would enjoy at best 1 year of spodumene offtake under the current arrangements.
But don't get me wrong , they will be completely wrapped in the costings and pricings as well , and more than happy to move forward to chemical's conversion I would think.
Don't forget as well , that 25% of the approximate A$303 per ton will be borne out by Piedmont. So that's then roughly an Authier spod cost at concentrate level of A$227 per ton.
I would imagine that even back in the days of AJM , they would have loved to be in a position of having such a low cost of production of concentrate.
And so from there , I don't think Sayona is going to have to stand on its head or do handstands or stride jumps ( wish I could do those right now .....lol ) in getting someone to put their hand up for a starting $100 million of capital funding which for all intents and purposes with an IRR of 140% can be paid back in a matter of just a couple of years.
(20min delay)