Nice! Thanks SF. It’s always good to challenge the figures. I’ve got AUD 3b profit in 2026 which gives AUD 36b market cap at 12x cash flow.
just out of interest, my calcs are the following..
Based on..
- 80% of current SC6, carb and hydroxide prices
- 226k NAL production
- 12x cash flow (or earnings per share)
- Carbonate/Hydroxide costs AUD 5750/mt
- SC6 costs AUD 500/mt
- 8.5b shares
- Moblan ramp up during 2025
- SYA 60% ownership Moblan
- SYA 75% ownership Sayona Quebec
- PLL off-take at a bare minimum when NAL conversion running mid 2025
- possible increase in carb/hydroxide in 2027
Gives..
Dec 2023 45c (6months of NAL production)
Dec 2024 90c
Dec 2025 2.98
Dec 2026 4.27
Dec 2027 5.12
You could argue that these share prices could be brought forward to the start of each year but I like to be conservative.
Besides, a December 2024 share price of 90c would fit in nicely with the recently announced ATM which expires July 2025.
Happy to share spreadsheet and to be challenged on assumptions .
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