SYA 5.26% 3.6¢ sayona mining limited

General Discussion Topics, page-679

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    There are obviously a lot of factors involved. Such as will the HUB strategy be allowed to be consummated and go ahead as we feel it should in terms of economic benefits and costs. That is the first Question.

    Moving on from there, the next step would be to estimate ( if successful ) the sum total of ALL the Lithium Parts that Sayona potentially could exploit under these circumstances. And a lot of this is going to be purely hypothetical as some of it is only conceptual in nature and not completely proven up.

    So I guess we start with Authier where we Know there is potentially 20 MT of ore at .55 % cutoff ,78% recovery and 6.0% Li2O. So then there is NAL with approximately defined reserves of 39.3 MT of ore. Tansim has been estimated at between 5 and 25 MT ....so lets just say for the moment 20 MT. Then Lac Samard would have around 5 - 7 MT at the moment so let's just say 10 MT.

    On top of all that , there is also the Pilbara where we know there is an abundance of Lithium just like there is Iron Ore. So with Mallina et al , let's just say that the combined Pilbara potential at the moment would be equivalent to an Authier or another Tansim. There's another 20 MT with 55% cut off and at 6% Li2O.

    So that's 109.3 MT of ore or almost 3 Million Tonnes of Lithium Concentrate over LOM ( whatever that ends up being across potentially 4 separate Lithium Operations )

    So then we need to consider what the growth in the market will be .....with some pundits calling at least 10 times the current ' USAGE / Demand ' for lithium by 2025. So given that historically and excluding U.S. production, the worldwide lithium production in 2019 decreased by 19% to77,000 tons of lithium content from 95,000 tons in 2018 ....with a key consideration being, that up to now the only lithium production in the United States was from a brine operation inNevada with two other companies producing a wide range of downstream lithium compounds in the United States fromdomestic or imported lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, and lithium hydroxide.

    So essentially up until the collapse of Altura and others , there were a total of six mineral operations in Australia, two brine operations each in Argentina and Chile, and one brine and one mineraloperation in China which accounted for the majority of this world lithium production and output.

    In addition , we know that up to now , the so called overproduction and deflated prices gave rise to several established lithium operations postponing their planned capacity expansion with a number of Junior mining like Sayona with operations inAustralia, Canada, and Namibia ceasing their production altogether. As we know , this has now change with Lithium prices up over 40% in just one month and as result more lithium projects being dusted off.

    So lets just say that Sayona is more of a near term production capacity coming on stream. If the HUB consolidation is successful , and the ramp up in production and excavation can occur seamlessly from Authier while at the same time exploration can prove more resources across Sayona's highly prospective lithium tenements , then using the attached table , you can see that if the market grows by 10 times , it is possible that Sayona if it does everything right could potentially meet just under 10% of the Global Market supply of LI2O and perhaps a share of the same in the production of Lithium Carbonate . I guess the question becomes how quickly can they do all this , and how many others will be doing the same thing by the time they get to this point. ie will the market keep growing enough to avert another potential oversupply and price decline in the future.

    These are my best guesses , and back of the envelope calculations based on potential tonnage and current market estimates for Lithium demand and usage. But there are probably those who are better qualified that I in working out these sorts of Calculations.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2885/2885230-bfb521fb2f3c6a9e030f7941ebe15148.jpg

 
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