17-Sep-2022Welcome to the weekend’s Wall StreetUnderground...

17-Sep-2022

Welcome to the weekend’s Wall StreetUnderground update,

Disclaimer: This is a research letter with myown views, and opinions and do not constitute in any financial advice orinvestment advice, neither does it contain any confidential information or data. Utilisation of purely sentiment-based data with some bland economists’ opinions and wall street and non-wall street institutional chatter for some added spice.
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Kindly read and enjoy it, just have somefun!!! And for this Saturday fun: I find dropping codes very interesting fromTime to time so to all who might be in the know, tell me how old is myGrandmother? It is an actual code used, you will know it or not. Please don’t overthink it, if you know you will know what I am talking about otherwise one could come up with some crazy ideas. I don’t reply much so apologies but still read most of your posts when I can.

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So, good afternoon to all from a beautifulSydney afternoon, I was going to post this yesterday but as I mentioned to youall last week that Friday was going to be “Late working” for Wealth and CapitalInstitutional Settlements and Cross Trades. Settlement systems were burning away with severs crashing and redeployments to accept and redistribute the high frequency volumes. So catching up with friends for drinks was late night, then early this morning rowing (sculling) in the beautiful harbour.
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Today’s key topic of focus: The Ferris wheelof Institutional Investments

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Historic knowledge is the mother ofSkill. Executing on that Skill is Credibility. People like Ray Dalio, Warren B, and many key financial wizards have reached that skill to actually execute their plans and have the patience to see them into fruition. Have they made mistakes? … Yes plenty! but key is that they learnt from them. Back testing, historic testing, emotional spikes observations & documentation, Global Median trend analysis and then finally utilizing the power of Analytics to bring it all together for projecting hypothetical trends based on real historic data and sentiment. Making plans ‘daily’ is hard enough but executing them flawlessly is extremely difficult. Therefore one has to make several mistakes but key is not be scared to make future mistakes; no second guessing…this brings in the key element… Clarity without emotion. When the heart starts to beat fast and all sorts of scenarios come into the mind, Clarity is your best friend. This one element can make you or break you in Institutions or at Retail.

So welcome all SYA shareholders into the ASX200 where volatile emotions are implemented to create a volatile experiences. Heaven and Hell all wrapped up in a ‘Butterfly Day’s Trade’. Time tested antics where consistency favours probability, patience runs for the hills, and greed anchors in to create the Ferris wheel of Institutional investments.

In my last research paper, I explained whathappens during ASX 200 inclusion and along with the Triple Witching hour howthis affects volatility and much more than large volumes.
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There was a large Institutional dinner lastweek, several discussions; numbers, as to who’s joining the ASX 200, who’sweak, who’s relatively strong but most importantly where do the profits sit andwhat their journey is. Of course, SYA was amongst the chatter being a near term producer, lots of ‘Target pricing’ banded around but this is where Institutions feel out other Institutions view of potential Target pricing. I have to say there was ‘keenness’ in Sayona. The interesting thing to note is at these dinners its about Profit target avenues and preliminary entry markers (only guide). The Bigger groups clusters together and lots of predictions and “Big Talks” occur. But every Dinner is never FREE !!! There is always a give and take. What will you give me if I give you something? A Barter system of sorts. Greed, Desire, Ambition, Opulence added with expensive alcohol is on the menu.
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The information from these Networking events isthen brought to Institutional Analysts for Price predictions (if they stillremember their talks after such an indulgence). The Analysts go through everything, utilising the (AI) Artificial Intelligence models and a Matrix Price prediction Control Sheet is produced. The price points include extremely high or extremely low price point numbers, initial entry, then negotiated entries. …. Remember the dinner “Barter system’ Give and Take agreements. Have you noticed that sometimes the whole Lithium sector or any sector seems to rise and fall simultaneously. This is where Institutions collaborate (the Butterfly affect) to gauge where they can bring the price to for entries, price fluctuations and if volatility parameters are correct. Some additional calculations are also included in the mix:

· Global Commodity Events

· Macro Events

· Local scenarios

· Upcoming FOMC activities

· Dollar, Bonds, Gold variances

· Additional in-direct variables
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Without going into detail some chatter ‘in myopinion only’ regarding SYA was about the % to Piedmont, the overall Board amongstother items. Interestingly, Nickel was being discussed heavily also, at leastwhat I felt. Please also note SYA stock price was simply on an upward trajectory for days which in the ASX 200 den, brings out certain undesired behaviour. The aspects of Fear, followed by Greed, followed by more Greed. The Ferris wheel of Institutional investment.

SYA peaked at .375 cents and the price pointweakened. Why? Well, would you buy at the peak if you had millions that you ‘Must’ buy into as an Institution? Of course not. However, there are many Retail Traders in SYA and with the US news of the CPI numbers (typical) wiped a $ Billion off the ASX. Crashing the price of SYA down to .315 cents. Institutional High Frequency Trading platforms can easily see Retail Traders data and picks. They pushed the price to .36 cents as a retest and the ones that did not notice got caught up there. (you will be surprised what the Institutions can actually see on their platform, apart from Level 3 and 4). New implementations being looked at is ‘Group Sentiment Trading’ or “The Herd’. So, the Institutions Sell down to get a preferential stock price. And this is what you are seeing upfold in front of you, it’s simply accumulation of temporary Wealth into Profit taking and Shares Loan outs.
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Also note you will see a lot of Sellingwhy? Hmmm well the main topic “The Ferris Wheel of Institutional Investing” pertaining to 3 main things:

1. 1. Global Equity Markets: * These are my Thursdays figures* (A) The US equity market dropped and below key support and guess what? FedEx reported a massive miss on profits and dropped its year-ahead-forecast citing a marked deterioration in activity over the last quarter + Adobe drops 17% on Figma acquisition announcement. Why? As Adobe earnings dropped -2.7% the Figma acquisition simply looks desperate as suggests that Adobe has a hard time seeing organic growth from its core business. (B) The risk off tone yesterday helped support the US dollar despite US yields trading largely sideways and a mixed bag of US economic data. The US dollar rose almost across the board as the market is wary of the risk of official intervention. Any further deterioration in risk sentiment will likely continue to drive USD strength with US yields also an important coincident indicator. (C) US yield trade near the cycle highs at the long end of the yield curve as a test of the key cycle top at 3.50%.
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2. 2. The further your Price action moves away fromthe Median trend; you get pulled back to the Median eventually. This ALWAYS happens before you are eventually re-rated. But Re-rates constitutes resilience in the ASX 200, enduring the volatility, the fight and the hunger to step up to the notorious Bully(s) as written in my 1st paper.
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3. 3. And what about the Boys who had the Sharesbefore the ASX 200 boys are having to buy in. I mentioned this in my previous 2^nd paper, that there were “Tiered Price agreements, Preferential Rate agreements” handshakes were made to those agreements. Now they are simply being “Honoured”. In Wall Street or any Financial Street there is always a Bigger Wolf than you… always. So, Hierarchy must be adhered to, like it or not and that goes from a Boutique, Small, Medium, Large, Huge to Ginormous Institutions. Play ball or I will hurt you, maybe not know but when you least expect it and hurt, they will. Nothing is forgotten and then the compensation becomes even bigger! If you think the Mob is organised and bad, Institutions are their Grand Masonic Architects. Greed corrupts absolutely, but Power corrupts the absolute origins of existence. You must know how the Institutional Law applies. I can write a whole paper on just that !
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So where from here?

Volatility at a grand scale. But how to counter some of these effects? Well, how one deals with the Market and presents itself has a perception effect. This was presented today by Sayona putting out a price sensitive announcement, when? Hmmmm at the Market low and how much did it rally up against the “Median Trend” before it got smashed down again? This announcement actually did not have much sensitivity in it, it was simply a good monthly update which could have come out anytime for Sep. Right? But it did not come out when SYA was reaching its .375 cents high but instead when it was reaching its lowest point of .305 cents. I am not making any statements but simple observations.
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Fact: Institutions will know about yourupdates, they will scrutinize it very quickly and if it ain’t concrete … pleasethen simply Mind the Gap!!! The Power play in the ASX 200 coupled with the above 3 key elements (US Market + Median Trend + Tiered Agreements) can easily be utilised to an advantage. And it’s for Institutional advantage. In my 2^nd paper I laid out several Strategies Sayona Management MUST try and deploy to start counter measures.
.It’s not just about Communications but the following:

1. 1. It’s about Strategic and TacticalInvolvementship with the Market

2. 2. Beat the Wall Street drum about who are youtalking to, if not exact then be vague but beat the Wall Street drum?

3. 3. What are you talking about? Again be vague butdrum away

4. 4. What is your perception in the Market?

5. 5. Are there any juicy rumours?

6. 6. Keith D. Phillips of Piedmont Lithium (notcommenting on his ability to deliver) but just observed that he was recently a Senior Advisor with merchant banker Maxit Capital, and led the mining investment banking teams for Dahlman Rose, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, and JPMorgan. It simply shows he is well versed with making appearances, creating sentiment, and creating a perception. But the beauty with Sayona is that there is a real Engine that actually ROARS under the hood. And the modifications to that engine is even more exciting. See…. how vagueness can create interest?

I know we are all looking into EVs but itssimply using Engines as an analogy. Sayona = Something of Substance. However, that Substance MUST create a Strategic perception to the Market, a sense of fervour and excitement. I had listed several strategies in my last paper. I urge Sayona to kindly read them and take note, leaders are forged in toil.

7. 7. Next, Is Sayona showing themselves as aLeader in the market? Look at PLS Pilbara M, what is their unique market offering: Apart from Production, their unique BMX platform. This is a typical quality of being a leader, they are starting to confirm price points of Lithium. The Lithium market dealers talk about their auctions. Their communications are internal and external, but it can still be enhanced, much more enhanced, with dynamic usable strategies, stringent processes, systems, and resources but they have embarked onto something that shows the market they have a unique proposition.
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8. 8. Sayona needs to create its unique propositionthat carves out a significant place for herself. It’s not simply about producing, it’s about market perception as a leader and on top of that become a producer. It’s important to have a unique proposition, even the fact that Sayona will become the key Hub to distribute to the US. Where is the key Marketing message to the Institutions, and poetential future Investors… is the Wall Street Drum beating??? But then re-affirming the point through interactive strategic targeting until Sayona embarks on another unique proposition. No time like the present to create the noise needed for the Market and show the Market that Sayona has enough grunt to back it up too!
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9. Sayona needs to adopt a ManagementCommunications Target Operating Model. This includes having the data repository which is consistent. Each system (CRM, Websites, Emails, Sales, Finance, strategic data, growth data) is pooling into a Data Hub. From the Data Hub utilising Analytics to project how the growth will be, how will be double, triple, quadruple and what are the paths to achieve them in a globally volatile US market ahead.
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Structure = Plans = Unique Value Proposition= Execution PLUS Market Perception becomes your best friend. The Compounding factor takes over then.

This concludes the 17^th of SepResearch Paper. And apologies if my papers are long and tedious to read. There is a lot of information I like to impart to all when I possibly can. I have still tried to cut it down to fit the HC format. So kindly thank you for reading.
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Remember what you have bought into, you knowwhere it’s eventually headed. The Institutions or Global markets will continue to do their thing, they have done it since the Markets inception. But great wealth has also been made by non-Institutional folks. Its leadership in themselves.
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I hope you all have a great weekend and lookforward to an even more interesting next week. And believe me it will most definitely be an interesting week ahead!!!

Kind regards

OrdFinancial

Email: [email protected]