General Discussion Topics, page-77764

China opening up?

(1) Reuters reported about an unverified note trending in social media, and tweeted by influential economist Hao Hong, that a "Reopening Committee" formed by Chinese Politburo Standing Member Wang Huning was reviewing overseas COVID data to assess various reopening scenarios, including dropping most curbs by spring 2023.

“Crude prices jumped after rumors that China was preparing for a full reopening in March 2023,” said Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA. 

Resolution of Ukraine war?

(2) If Republicans win the House in the midterm elections, their pledge is to take a hard look at the money the US is spending to help foot the bill -- to the tune of billions in security aid -- for Ukraine's defense against Russia's invasion. As foreign aid fatique set in, this may force Ukraine to the negotiation table with Russia and end the war with less than perfect outcome, but nonetheless, an end to the war still.

Inflation finally turn around?

(3) Some investors believe Treasury yields are close to peaking, even as markets continue pricing in more hawkishness from a Federal Reserve bent on taming the worst inflation in decades.

It's a refrain that has been heard more than once in 2022, as a steep selloff in Treasuries steamrolls investors who bet markets would soon reverse, while battering stocks and fueling the dollar’s climb.

John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, expects the Fed to raise rates by 150 basis points in total over the next two months, then start cutting rates in the first half of next year.

“This forecast is dovish after January, which should provide major relief for equity and bond markets," he said.