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It’s wedding season so I’m a bit short on time (am visiting 4 within 2 weeks!). But, guess where SYA ended up on Friday? The beautiful
25.
5cent mark
.
I was off with the timing a bit. Took 3 weeks not 2. However, instead of being a P&D like the first rise from 12 cents to 18 cents and back down to 13 cents, this time it is different for two reasons:
1) global markets were declining in June 2022, but have turned bullish in the past few weeks. So, positive macro conditions
2) the obvious cup-and-handle… the longer the timeframe, the stronger the pattern. It expands over 10 months. Now; the 10% shorting could be the funds keeping the SP down… simply to accumulate and let it run when the technical and fundamental factors align. There’s been UNCERTAINTY regarding the offtake partners, drilling results, DFS, government grants, etc. So, the handle got longer and longer and longer… until it will be as long as the cup: 4 months, 3 weeks.
Of course, what if it breaks? Because fundamental news is below expectations. Why?
- Consider the NAL PFS used $1,300 (or thereabouts) pricing, and currently 5.5% spodumene is fetching US$7500. The NPV exceeds $5B.
- Consider the importance of the assets Sayona owns to the Canadian EV footprint. Are any funding issues, permit issues, or ANY DELAYS going to be vital for Canada to address? Are the miners or buyers at the steering wheel? Ask Benchmark Mineral Intelligence… and its miners.
Taking a step back there’s the Sayona specific factors and the political tailwinds. It’s a puzzle that if you study is only going to have a good outcome. And the BEST outcome if you asked the Canadian government. So where do we stand?
I’m going to throw a guess and say 27.5 cents close today. Remember 17 cents was only 3 weeks ago… 39 cents, here we go again. For the third time! Stay well folks
(20min delay)